UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA 

COLLEGE    OF    AGRICULTURE 

AGRICULTURAL    EXPERIMENT   STATION 

BERKELEY,  CALIFORNIA 


PRUNE  SUPPLY  AND  PRICE 
SITUATION 


S.  W.  SHEAR 


BULLETIN  462 

December,,  1928 


UNIVERSITY  OF   CALIFORNIA  PRINTING  OFFICE 

BERKELEY,  CALIFORNIA 

1928 


CONTENTS 

PAGE 

Summary  and  conclusions 3 

Object  of  study 7 

Varieties  of  prunes 8 

California  prune-producing  districts 9 

Production  in  California 13 

Outlook  for  California  production 16 

Pacific  Northwest  production  outlook 17 

World  production  outlook 18 

Production  in  foreign  countries 20 

International  trade 25 

General  fruit  situation 29 

Consumption  of  dried  fruits 30 

Size  and  quality  of  California  prunes 37 

Chief  uses  for  prunes 44 

Price  of  California  prunes 47 

Problems  of  adjustment 60 

Appendix  of  tables 65 


LIST   OF   TABLES 

PAGE 

1.  California  prune  production,  bearing  acreage,  and  yields,  1914-1928,  and 

forecast  of  bearing  acreage  1929-1931 14 

2.  Commercial  production  of  dried  prunes  by  countries,  1898-1928 19 

3.  Average  dried-prune  exports  from  chief  producing  regions  to  principal 

markets,  1923-1927 24 

4.  California  dried-fruit  production,  average  1910-1914  and  1923-1927 30 

5.  United  States  production,  exports,  and  domestic  supply  of  dried  prunes, 

crop  years  1898-1927 31 

6.  Dried-prune   consumption  by   chief   countries,   averages   1909-1913   and 

1921-1925 33 

7.  Dried  fruits:  United  States  production,  foreign  trade,  and  consumption, 

average  1921-1925 35 

8.  Percentage  of  California  prune  production  by  sizes,  1912-1927 36 

9.  Farm  price  of  California  prunes  per  ton  and  per  bearing  acre,  1919-1927...     49 

10.  California  prune  production  and  prices,  1886-1928 50 

11.  Farm  price  of  prunes  by  sizes,  average  1917-1920  and  1922-1925 59 

12.  California  bearing  prune  acreage  by  counties  and  districts,  1921-1928,  and 

non-bearing,  1928 66 

13.  Size  distribution  of  California  prunes  by  counties  and  districts,  1925-1927 

(in  per  cent  of  total  of  all  sizes  for  each  district  or  county) 67 

14.  United  States  exports  of  prunes  by  countries,  1897-1927 68 


PRUNE  SUPPLY  AND  PRICE  SITUATION 

S.  W.   SHEAE2 


SUMMARY   AND    CONCLUSIONS 

As  a  result  of  increasing  production,  the  California  prune  industry 
is  faced  with  the  probability  that,  on  the  average,  prune  prices  will 
be  Tinprofitably  low  for  an  unusually  large  percentage  of  growers  for 
several  years,  unless  growers,  selling  agencies,  and  others  financially 
interested  in  the  industry  greatly  improve  the  methods  and  reduce  the 
costs  of  marketing  and  succeed  in  eliminating  the  more  inferior  part 
of  potential  production  from  competition  with  the  better  grades  of 
table  prunes,  and  unless  growers  themselves  drastically  reduce  costs 
of  production. 

Production, — Increasing  California  production  is  the  major  cause 
of  the  upward  trend  in  the  commercial  prune  output  of  the  world. 
During  the  five  years  1923-1927,  the  state  produced  over  65  per  cent 
of  the  average  world  commercial  production  (excluding  Jugoslavian 
domestic  consumption)  of  about  230,000  tons;  Jugoslavia  produced 
nearly  20  per  cent ;  our  Pacific  Northwest  slightly  over  10  per  cent ; 
and  France  about  5  per  cent.  Average  world  commercial  production 
of  dried  prunes  in  recent  years  has  been  about  70  per  cent  greater 
than  in  the  period  1909-1913  and  about  30  per  cent  larger  than  in 
1904-1908. 


1  Acknowledgments. — The  following  organizations  and  individuals  have  given 
the  author  generous  assistance  in  the  preparation  of  this  bulletin:  The 
Divisions  of  Fruit  and  Vegetables  and  of  Statistical  and  Historical  Eesearch 
of  the  United  States  Bureau  of  Agricultural  Economics;  the  United  States 
Bureau  of  Foreign  and  Domestic  Commerce;  the  California  Crop  Report- 
ing Service;  the  California  Prune  and  Apricot  Growers  Association;  Mr. 
J.  M.  Newhouse,  Manager  of  the  North  Pacific  Prune  Exchange;  Mr.  K.  S. 
Patton,  United  States  Consul  at  Belgrade,  Jugoslavia;  Mr.  H.  C.  Rowley, 
editor  of  the  California  Fruit  News;  Mr.  B.  H.  Critchfield  and  Mr.  C.  F.  Wells 
of  the  Division  of  Markets  of  the  California  State  Department  of  Agriculture;  the 
Dried  Fruit  Association  of  California;  Rosenberg  Bros,  and  Co.;  the  California 
Packing  Corporation;  Catz  American  Co.;  the  Western  Canner  and  Packer; 
Mr.  V.  T.  Ellsworth  of  the  California  Farm  Bureau;  and  Mr.  Earle  J.  Shaw. 

Members  of  the  University  staff  from  whom  valuable  suggestions  have  been 
received  are  Dr.  A.  H.  Hendrickson,  Professors  C.  M.  Titus,  T.  F.  Hunt,  and 
W.  V.  Cruess,  Messrs.  P.  F.  Nichols  and  E.  M.  Mrak,  and  Mrs.  M.  J.  Abbot. 
Within  the  Division  of  Agricultural  Economics  valuable  assistance  was  received 
from  Dr.  H.  E.  Erdman,  Dr.  Emil  Rauchenstein,  and  Mr.  C.  H.  West.  The 
statistical  computations  and  draughting  were  largely  done  by  Mr.  F.  M.  Roush. 

2  Assistant  Agricultural  Economist  in  the  Experiment  Station. 


4  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

French  production,  although  rather  variable,  has  averaged  nearly 
12,000  tons  during  the  last  five  years,  or  only  about  one-half  of  the 
pre-war  average  and  there  seems  to  be  no  prospects  for  an  increase  in 
normal  output. 

Jugoslavian  post-war  average  commercial  output  (exported  sur- 
plus) of  about  40,000  tons  is  about  30  per  cent  greater  than  the  1909- 
1913  average  but  approximately  40  per  cent  less  than  for  1904-1908, 
the  period  of  maximum  exports  from  the  prune-producing  areas  now 
included  in  Jugoslavia.  The  limited  available  evidence  indicates  that 
Jugoslavian  prunes  will  probably  continue  to  offer  as  much  competi- 
tion to  our  prunes,  on  the  average,  as  in  recent  years,  Although  there 
has  been  no  noticeable  upward  trend  in  production  and  exports  of 
dried  prunes  in  that  country  since  1920,  there  is  a  possibility  of  a 
slight  increase  in  the  near  future. 

The  production  and  bearing  acreage  of  prunes  in  California  have 
just  about  kept  pace  with  one  another  in  recent  years.  Should  pro- 
duction during  the  next  few  years  continue  to  keep  up  with  fore- 
casted bearing  acreage,  the  production  may  conservatively  be  esti- 
mated at  an  average  of  190,000  tons  a  year  for  several  years,  an 
increase  of  about  36,000  tons  over  the  average  of  the  last  five  years. 

If  commercial  production  in  France  and  Jugoslavia,  should  remain 
at  an  average  of  about  50,000  tons  during  the  next  few  years,  the 
Pacific  Northwest  increase  to  30,000  tons,  and  California  average 
190,000  tons,  world  commercial  dried-prune  production,  which  has 
averaged  about  230,000  tons  during  the  last  five  years,  would  average 
270,000  tons  over  a  period  of  several  years,  or  as  large  as  the  world 
output  of  1927. 

International  Trade. — An  average  of  over  half  of  world  produc- 
tion of  dried  prunes  now  enters  into  export  trade.  During  recent 
years  over  62  per  cent  of  average  world  exports  of  260  million  pounds 
has  come  from  the  United  States,  California  alone  contributed  55 
per  cent  and  Jugoslavia  about  34  per  cent  of  this  international  move- 
ment. United  States  exports  have  increased  rapidly  during  the  last 
thirty  years.  Since  the  war  an  average  of  over  45  per  cent  of  the 
country 's  production  has  been  exported. 

Western  Europe,  the  greatest  consumer  of  dried  prunes,  has 
imported  nearly  95  per  cent  of  world  exports  in  recent  years  and 
approximately  90  per  cent  of  United  States  exports,  Germany  is 
by  far  the  greatest  importer  of  prunes,  taking  about  27  per  cent  of 
world  exports  from  1923  to  1927  and  approximately  25  per  cent  of 
our  exports.     In  Germany  our  prunes  meet  the  keenest  competition 


BUU  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND    PRICE    SITUATION  5 

from  Jugoslavian  prunes,  which  are  of  a  poorer  quality  than  ours  but 
normally  sell  at  substantially  lower  prices.  German  imports  of  prunes 
from  the  United  States  usually  vary  almost  inversely  with  imports 
from  Jugoslavia.  The  big  fluctuations  in  Jugoslavian  production  and 
exports,  therefore  account  to  a  considerable  extent  for  the  violent 
variations  in  German  prune  imports  from  the  United  States.  Most 
Jugoslavian  prune  exports  go  to  neighboring  European  countries, 
There  has  been  a  decided  tendency  for  those  to  Czechoslovakia  to 
increase  in  recent  years.  If  this  tendency  continues  it  may,  by  divert- 
ing foreign  prunes  which  would  otherwise  go  to  Germany,  result  in 
an  increase  in  German  imports  of  our  prunes.  The  decline  which  has 
taken  place  in  prune  production  in  France  has  resulted  in  a  big 
increase  in  her  imports  from  California  and  placed  her  third  among 
importers  of  our  prunes  in  recent  years. 

Size  and  Quality. — For  many  years  California  prunes  have  been 
graded  into  three  classes  according  to  quality  and  ten  groups  accord- 
ing to  size.  There  is  an  apparently  desirable  tendency  among  dis- 
tributers to  adopt  only  three  major  size  classes  of  prunes — large, 
medium,  and  small.  The  interior  valleys  produce  only  a  very  small 
percentage  of  prunes  of  as  high  a  quality,  judged  by  present  trade 
standards,  as  the  majority  of  prunes  produced  in  the  coastal-valley 
districts  of  the  state.  Proper  cultural,  harvesting,  and  drying  prac- 
tices would  improve  both  the  size  and  quality  of  many  prunes  pro- 
duced in  interior-valley  orchards. 

It  seems  desirable  that  all  factors  in  the  prune  industry  encourage 
the  production  of  large  prunes  of  superior  quality  by  placing  the 
proper  price  premiums  on  them,  and  discourage  the  production  of 
prunes  of  small  size  and  of  inferior  quality  by  adequate  price  penalties. 
The  market  supply  of  prunes  for  table  use  could  be  reduced  10  to  2Q 
per  cent  if  poor-quality  fruit  and  sizes  90  or  smaller  were  kept  off 
the  market  in  years  of  abnormally  large  and  unprofitable  world  crops. 
Growers  in  localities  that  are  not  adapted  to  the  economical-  production 
of  prunes  of  good  quality  and  of  medium  size  or  larger  would  benefit 
themselves  and  the  industry  by  turning  to  other  enterprises  or  occu- 
pations in  which  there  are  possibilities  of  making  a  better  living. 

During  the  last  twenty  years  the  proportion  of  California  prunes 
40  to  50  to  the  pound  or  larger  has  shown  a  notable  increase,  due 
chiefly  to  the  fact  that  much  of  the  expansion  of  production  has  taken 
place  in  those  coast  and  Sacramento  Valley  counties  which  produce  a 
big  percentage  of  large  prunes.  The  proportion  of  50/60 's  has 
remained  fairly  constant,  while  60/70  's  or  smaller  have  declined  in 


6  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

relative  importance.  An  average  of  about  40  per  cent  of  recent  crops 
has  been  40/50 's  or  larger;  about  the  same  proportion  has  been 
50/60 's;  and  approximately  20  per  cent  smaller  sizes.  Variations  in 
the  output  of  50/60 's  and  60/70 's  are  relatively  small.  The  greatest 
fluctuations  occur  in  the  case  of  larger  sizes. 

Consumption. — In  this  country  prunes  nearly  all  reach  the  con- 
sumer in  the  dried  form.  Prune  pulp  and  dried  prunes  canned  in 
syrup  and  in  wine,  however,  are  relatively  new  products  which  can 
be  cheaply  packed  and  for  which  extensive  markets  may  be  built  up 
once  the  technical  problems  involved  in  packing  them  have  been  satis- 
factorily solved.  Unfortunately,  the  probability  that  these  problems 
will  be  solved  in  time  to  help  much  in  relieving  the  industry  of  the 
present  burden  of  low  prices  caused  by  over-production,  seems  remote. 

Because  of  increased  world  production,  the  total  and  the  per-capita 
consumption  of  dried  prunes  and  of  dried  fruits  in  general  has  sub- 
stantially increased  in  most  of  the  chief  dried-fruit-consuming  coun- 
tries since  pre-war  years.  The  United  States  consumption  of  dried 
fruits  in  post-war  years  of  6.7  pounds  per  capita  is  50  per  cent  greater 
than  the  pre-war  average  and  is  larger  than  that  of  all  but  a  half 
dozen  of  the  more  important  foreign  markets.  Nearly  25  per  cent  of 
it  (1.6  pounds)  now  consists  of  prunes.  The  peoples  of  the  United 
States,  Canada,  New  Zealand,  and  Argentina  and  of  most  of  the 
countries  of  northwestern  Europe  now  consume  a  pound  or  more  of 
dried  prunes  per  capita  annually  and  nearly  all  of  them  have  shown 
a  decided  increase  in  per-capita  consumption  since  pre-war  days. 

Price  Outlook  and  Problems  of  Adjustment. — In  the  past,  sub- 
stantial increases  in  prune  production  have  practically  always  made  a 
cut  in  prices  necessary  in  order  to  induce  consumers  to  eat  more 
prunes.  The  rough  data  available  indicate  that  nearly  75  per  cent 
of  the  changes  in  crop-year  average  wholesale  prices  of  California 
prunes  in  the  New  York  market  can  be  accounted  for  by  variations  in 
approximate  world  consumption,  except  in  very  abnormal  years  such 
as  1919-1921. 

If  the  forecasted  production  of  prunes  actually  matures  and 
reaches  the  market  during  the  next  few  years,  prices  will  have  to  be 
low  to  induce  consumers  to  use  all  the  available  supply  or  else  growers, 
selling  agencies,  and  others  financially  interested  in  the  industry  will 
have  to  unite  in  a  determined  and  constructive  remedial  program. 
Such  a  program  would  involve  measures  (1)  to  reduce  the  acreage 
and  commercial  production  of  prunes,  (2)  to  lower  production  costs, 
(3)  to  improve  size  and  quality,   (4)  to  eliminate  small  and  inferior 


BUL.462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  7 

prunes  from  consumption  as  table  fruit,  (5)  to  reduce  costs  of  market- 
ing, (6)  to  improve  and  widen  distribution,  and  (7)  to  stimulate 
foreign  and  domestic  demand. 

Even  though  extraordinary  improvements  were  to  be  made  in 
marketing  prunes  during  the  next  few  years,  it  is  improbable  that  the 
net  result  would  be  sufficient  to  entirely  overcome  the  depressing  effect 
of  heavy  production  of  prunes  and  of  other  competing  fruits  upon 
prices.  Marketing  improvements  will  be  worth  working  for,  however, 
for  they  should  result  in  higher  prices  than  the  grower  would  be  able 
to  get  without  them.  The  test  of  the  value  of  efforts  to  improve  dis- 
tribution will  be  whether  prices  are  better  than  they  would  have  been 
had  no  such  changes  been  made,  and  not  whether  prices  are  actually 
higher  during  the  period  in  which  the  improvements  are  in  effect. 

To  attempt  to  hold  prices  too  high  during  the  next  few  years  will 
result  in  carryovers  and  other  complications  which  will  only  add  to 
the  troubles  of  the  industry.  The  experience  with  carryovers  which 
the  raisin,  the  canning-peach,  and  the  prune  growers  themselves  have 
had  should  convince  them  that  it  is  usually  suicidal  to  hold  prices  high 
enough  to  cause  carryovers  from  one  crop  year  into  the  next  during 
a  period  in  which  average  production  is  large.  These  experiences 
also  indicate  that  practically  a  100  per  cent  support  by  the  growers 
in  an  industry  is  necessary  for  the  group  even  to  have  a  chance  to 
succeed  in  limiting  the  supply  of  a  commodity  put  upon  the  market 
and  completely  eliminating  the  rest  of  the  supply  from  competing 
market  channels  through  by-products  or  other  methods  of  disposal. 
Because  of  the  peculiar  economic  nature  of  agriculture  such  unified 
action  is  exceedingly  difficult  if  not  impossible  to  accomplish  in  most 
instances. 

OBJECT  OF  STUDY 

The  present  study  has  been  made  because  prune  growers  of  the 
state  are  interested  in  getting  at  the  facts  regarding  the  economic 
situation  of  their  industry  and  the  outlook  for  it.  The  analysis  of  the 
available  statistics  on  prune  acreage,  production,  sizes  and  grades, 
carryover,  consumption,  foreign  trade,  and  prices  which  is  presented 
herein  should  lead  those  interested  in  the  industry  to  a  better  and 
more  general  understanding  of  the  problems  which  confront  the 
industry,  and  by  so  doing  it  should  result  in  more  rapid  and  effective 
solution  by  individual  and  cooperative  effort.  When  considered  in 
the  light  of  the  specific  information  which  individuals  in  the  industry 
have  available   regarding  their  own   particular  situation,   the   facts 


8  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

presented  in  this  bulletin  should  be  helpful  to  growers,  as  well  as 
others  in  deciding"  what  it  is  best  for  them  to  do  under  the  circum- 
stances that  confront  them.3 


iC 


VARIETIES    OF    PRUNES 


From  the  point  of  view  of  the  dried-prune  industry,  which  is  under 
consideration  in  this  bulletin,  a  prune  is  a  plum  which  will  not  fer- 
ment when  dried  without  the  removal  of  the  pit4  and  usually  includes 
only  plums  having  a  high  percentage  of  sugar.  Only  a  very  few  plums 
not  of  the  type  called  prunes  are  dried  after  being  pitted  and  the 
dried  product  is  tart  in  flavor  and  the  demand  for  it  slight. 

Most  American-born  consumers  are  familiar  with,  and  hence  pre- 
fer, the  varieties  of  prunes  grown  in  California,  which  are  decidedly 
sweet  in  taste  when  dried.  Their  flavor  differs  noticeably  from  the 
tart  or  subacid  flavor  of  the  Italian  (Fellenberg)  variety,  which  con- 
stitutes the  bulk  of  the  dried  product  of  the  Pacific  Northwest.  The 
tartness  of  Italian  prunes  is  due  to  a  larger  acid  content  and  slightly 
smaller  sugar  content.  The  popular  impression  that  because  of  its 
tart  flavor  the  Italian  prune  has  a  much  smaller  sugar  content  than 
the  California  French  prune  is  incorrect.5  The  flavor  of  the  Italian 
prune  is  similar  to  that  of  the  prunes  exported  from  Jugoslavia,  to 
which  most  of  our  population  born  in  Europe  are  accustomed. 

The  chief  varieties  of  prunes  grown  in  California  are  the  French 
(Prune   d'Agen,   Petite   Prune),   Robe   de   Sergeant,   Imperial,    and 


s  The  farm-efficiency  studies  which  the  Extension  Division  of  the  College 
of  Agriculture  is  conducting  in  a  number  of  counties  are  supplying  California 
growers  with  much  needed  information  about  the  relation  of  farm  costs  and 
profits,  and  are  resulting  in  better  orchard  practices  in  many  sections  of  the 
state.  A  marketing  study  dealing  with  the  possibilities  of  widening  the  market 
for  prunes  and  cheapening  distribution  costs  is  now  being  carried  on  jointly 
by  the  Division  of  Agricultural  Economics  of  this  College  of  Agriculture,  the 
Division  of  Markets  of  the  State  Department  of  Agriculture,  and  the  Bureau 
of  Agricultural  Economics  of  the  United  States  Department  of  Agriculture. 
The  Division  of  Markets  of  the  State  Department  of  Agriculture  at  Sacramento 
has  recently  instituted  a  market  news  service  on  prunes  which  is  designed  to 
make  available  to  prune  growers  more  and  better  information  regarding  cur- 
rent changes  in  prices  and  production  and  the  marketing  situation  in  general. 

*Wickson,  E.  J.  California  fruits,  p.  269  (10th  ed.)  Pacific  Bural  Press, 
San  Francisco,  1926.  Some  aspects  of  the  economic  status  of,  and  the  outlook 
for,  the  fresh-plum  industry  is  treated  in:  Eauchenstein,  Emil.  Economic 
aspects  of  the  fresh  plum  industry.   California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui. 459: 1-26.    1928. 

5  Information  concerning  the  comparative  sugar  and  acid  content  of  Italian 
and  French  prunes  are  summarized  in:  Critchfield,  B.  H.  Demand,  marketing, 
and  production  of  Oregon  and  Washington  prunes.  U.  S.  Dept.  Agr.  Dept.  Circ. 
416:13.  1927.  Data  in  this  are  based  upon:  Colby,  G.  E.  Investigation  of 
California  prunes,  apricots,  and  peaches.  California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  97:8. 
1891;  and  upon:  Shaw,  G.  W.  The  Oregon  prune.  Its  composition,  food  value,  soil 
draught.     Oregon  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  61:18,     1900. 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE    SITUATION  9 

Sugar.6  The  French  prune,  the  most  important  commercial  variety 
grown  in  California,  is  found  in  all  the  prune-producing  sections  of 
the  state.  Except  for  its  tendency  to  produce  only  medium  to  small- 
sized  fruit,  it  is  probably  unsurpassed  in  California.  Its  quality  is 
usually  excellent.  The  fact  that  price  differentials  favor  large-sized 
prunes  more  than  formerly,7  however,  has  encouraged  the  planting 
during  the  last  decade  of  an  increased  proportion  of  varieties  which 
produce  large  sizes.8 

The  Robe  de  Sergeant,  which  is  extensively  planted  in  some  of 
the  interior  valley  sections,  resembles  the  French  in  size  and  quality 
when  dried  and  is  usually  sold  as  such.  Because  it  is  a  light  bearer, 
it  has  been  planted  but  sparingly,  particularly  in  the  coast  valleys. 

The  Imperial,  which  produces  the  largest  size  of  prunes,  is  planted 
in  certain  parts  of  the  Santa  Clara  Valley  and  in  the  coast  counties 
north  of  the  Bay.  The  fruit  is  large  and  of  excellent  quality,  but  the 
tree  is  a  notoriously  shy  bearer,  except  in  a  few  favored  localities 
particularly  in  the  counties  north  of  the  Bay. 

The  Sugar  prune  is  grown  in  certain  sections,  especially  in  the  hot 
interior  valleys.  Although  a  heavy  bearer  it  has  a  pronounced 
tendency  to  alternate  bearing.  Likewise,  the  dried  fruit,  although  fre- 
quently of  a  large  size,  is  mediocre  in  quality,  being  somewhat  coarse 
and  stringy. 


CALIFORNIA  PRUNE-PRODUCING   DISTRICTS9 

Location  and  Relative  Importance. — California  prune  production 
is  largely  concentrated  in  four  important  districts,  (See  figure  1.) 
The  largest,  oldest,  and,  as  a  whole,  the  most  concentrated  is  the  coast 
district10  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay,  which  extends  from  Contra 


6  The  following  brief  discussion  of  the  chief  varieties  of  prunes  grown  in 
California  is  based  on:  Hendrickson,  A.  H.  Prune  growing  in  California. 
California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  328:32,  33.  1923.  A  new  circular  on  plum  and 
prune  culture  in  California  is  now  being  prepared  by  F.  W.  Allen. 

7  See  brief  discussion  page  58. 

s  In  the  absence  of  any  available  statistics  on  plantings  of  prunes  by  varie- 
ties, the  analysis  of  data  showing  the  trend  in  production  of  prunes  of 
different  sizes,  and  the  relative  distribution  of  prunes  by  sizes  in  different 
counties  of  the  state,  as  discussed  on  pages  37-41,  should  prove  valuable. 

9  For  a  brief  description  of  the  important  characteristics  of  the  chief  prune- 
producing  districts  of  the  Pacific  Coast  see:  Kinman,  C.  F.  Plum  and  prune 
growing  in  the  Pacific  states.     U.  S.  Dept.  Agr.  Farmers '  Bui.  1372:1-12.    1924. 

io  The  districts  referred  to  in  this  bulletin  for  the  sake  of  brevity  as  the 
coast  districts  north  and  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay  are  not  on  the  coast 
proper  but  in  the  small  valleys  near  the  coast  such  as  the  Santa  Clara,  Santa 
Eosa,  and  Napa  valleys. 


10 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


Costa  to  San  Benito  County  and  includes  the  famous  Santa  Clara 
Valley,  in  which  the  California  industry  had  its  beginning.  It  con- 
tains about  44  per  cent  of  the  total  prune  acreage  in  the  state.  (See 
figure  2.)     The  greater  part  of  the  acreage  in  the  second  largest  dis- 


Ca//forr?/a  /=yt//?e  s4cr&crgr€>>  /928 

Tota/ of  fifecrr/r??  <?/7c/  M?/7-jbea/7/7gr  £(/  Counf/es 


Covin  ty  Acres 

Santa  Clara  69,961 

Sonoma 27,079 

Napa 12,050 

Tulare 9,856 

Butte 8,383 

Sutter 8,241 

San  Benito 7,802 

Solano 5»564 

Colusa 5,337 

Glenn 4,203 

Tehama 4,183 

Sacramento 3 ,  957 

yoio 3,457 

Contra  Costa  ...  2,626 

San  Luis  Obispo.  2,580 

Alameda 2 ,000 

San  Joaquin  ....  2,075 

Yuba 2,092 

Other  counties..  11,535 

Total 192,981 

INYO 


foe/?  c/of  represents 
/OOO  acres. 


Per 

Cent 

35.8 

14.0 

6.2 

Vo 
2.9 
2.8 
2.2 
2.2 
2.0 
1.8 
1.4 

1.3 
1.0 
l.l 
1.1 
6.5 
100.0 


Fig.  1. — California  prune  production  is  largely  concentrated  (1)  in  the 
Santa  Clara  Valley  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay,  (2)  in  Napa  and  Sonoma 
counties  north  of  the  Bay,  (3)  in  the  Sacramento  Valley,  and  (4)  in  Tulare 
County  in  the  San  Joaquin  Valley.     (Data  from  table  12,  page  66.) 


Buk  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE    SITUATION 


11 


trict,  just  north  of  San  Francisco  Bay,  is  concentrated  in  Napa  and 
Sonoma  counties.  About  25  per  cent  of  the  state  acreage  is  in  this 
section.  The  acreage  in  the  Sacramento  Valley,  about  22  per  cent 
of  the  state  total,  is  somewhat  scattered,  stretching  from  Shasta 
County  on  the  north  to  San  Joaquin  County  on  the  south.  The  small 
prune-producing  area  centering  in  Tulare  County  in  the  southern 
part  of  the  San  Joaquin  Valley  contains  only  about  6  per  cent  of  the 
prune  acreage  of  the  state.  Outside  of  these  four  districts,  which 
account  for  nearly  98  per  cent  of  the  193,000  acres  of  prunes  (bearing 
and  non-bearing)  in  California,  there  are  less  than  5,000  acres  of 
scattered  plantings.11 


Co//forn/0  &ear//7<?  anc/  /Von- /year/sic? 
Prur?e  Acreage  be/  D/sfr/cfj,  /9£d. 


Thousands   of  Acres 
so  -4o  so 


CoOSt  South 

of  Bat/ 

Coast  Worth 
of  Bay 

Sacramento 
Va//eu 

San  Joaquin 
Va/teu 

Other 
Counties 


Fig.  2. — Over  90  per  cent  of  the  bearing  prune  acreage  of  California  is  in 
the  coast  districts  north  and  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay  and  in  the  Sacramento 
Valley.  The  district  south  of  the  Bay  outranks  the  others  in  bearing  acreage, 
but  the  Sacramento  Valley  has  the  largest  area  of  trees  not  yet  in  bearing. 
(Data  from  table  12,  page  66.) 


Expansion  of  Bearing  Acreage,  1921-1928. — The  black  portions  of 
the  bars  shown  in  figure  3  indicate  that  from  1921  to  1928  the  greatest 
expansion  in  bearing  prune  acreage  in  any  section  of  the  state  occurred 
in  the  coast  district  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay.  The  increase  of 
27,700  acres  amounted  to  an  addition  of  approximately  53  per  cent 


11  County  data  on  bearing  and  non-bearing  acreage   similar   to   those  dis- 
cussed by  districts  are  given  in  table  12,  page  66. 


12 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


to  the  bearing  acreage  of  1921.  Expansion  of  bearing  acreage  in  the 
section  north  of  the  Bay  and  that  in  the  Sacramento  Valley  have  been 
about  equal  since  1921,  amounting  to  about  17,500  acres  in  the  former 
and  17,800  in  the  latter.  The  proportional  increase,  however,  has 
been  greater  in  the  Sacramento  Valley,  approximating  104  per  cent 
from  1921  to  1928  compared  with  71  per  cent  in  the  coast  district 
north  of  San  Francisco  Bay.  There  has  been  only  a  slight  increase  in 
bearing  acreage  in  other  sections  of  the  state  in  recent  years.  In  the 
lower  San  Joaquin  Valley  the  expansion  since  1921  has  been  less  than 
20  per  cent,  amounting  to  less  than  2,000  acres.  In  the  period  1921- 
1928  the  bearing  acreage  of  the  state  as  a  whole  increased  by  nearly 
66,000  acres,  or  approximately  62  per  cent. 


Increase  In  Ca/zforn/a 

&ear/r?a 

P'rane  Acreage  Jb</  D/sfr/cts  JSe/fo  /92Q. 

T?iovsor>c/s  of  /4cre£ 

o                /o 

Thousands  of  Acres 

ZO                    JO                   -40                    SO                    60                     70                   S6 

t92/ 

/92S 

Jncrvose 

I 

'         1         i         1         1         1         1         1         1         1         I         1        1 

32  Z 

Z4.6 
/7I 

9.4 
3.0 

79.9 
42J 
34.9 

no 

41 

27.7  Coast  So.  of  £&(/ 

17.5  Coost/Voof  &o(/ 

17  8  Sacrdoverto  \/o//e(/ 

1.6  Son  Jooqv/n  Va//ey 

II  Of  her Coc/nf/es 

■■|ii«^^^<^^^ 

^%M^»^ 

P»W^ 

^m     Increase 
1,1, 

EST 

/os-j 

I72.0 

65.7    Tota/ 

Fig.  3. — The  bearing  acreage  of  prunes  has  increased  greatly  in  the  coast  districts 
and  in  the  Sacramento  Valley  since  1921.    (Data  from  table  12,  page  66.) 


Rank  in  Yields  per  Acre. — The  very  limited  available  statistical 
data  regarding  prune  yields  per  acre  in  the  different  sections  of  the 
state  confirm  the  general  impression  of  those  most  familiar  with  the 
industry.  The  lower  San  Joaquin  Valley  apparently  produces  the 
highest  yields  per  acre  followed  by  the  Sacramento  Valley  district,  the 
coast  district  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay,  and  the  coast  district  north 
of  the  Bay,  in  the  order  named.  The  very  fact  that  the  industry 
has  grown  but  little  in  the  high-yielding  southern  San  Joaquin  Valley 
area  shows  that  other  factors  than  yield  are  of  decisive  importance  in 
determining  the  profitableness  and  the  expansion  of  prune  production 
in  different  sections  of  the  state.  The  prunes  produced  in  this  dis- 
trict, on  the  whole,  average  too  small  in  size  and  low  in  quality  to 
bring  a  satisfactory  return  in  periods  of  low  prices  such  as  the  present. 
The  same  is  also  true  of  a  few  counties  in  the  Sacramento  Valley, 
although  several  counties12  produce  a  large  percentage  of  medium  and 
large-sized  prunes. 


See  discussion  pages  40  and  41. 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  13 

Indications  of  Future  Increases. — Judging  by  the  1928  non-bearing 
acreage  (see  table  12,  page  66)  the  greatest  increase  in  bearing  acreage 
and  production  is  to  be  expected  from  the  Sacramento  Valley,  which 
contains  40  per  cent  of  the  21,000  acres  of  prune  trees  in  the  state 
not  yet  in  bearing.  The  coast  district  north  of  San  Francisco  Bay 
contains  27  per  cent  of  the  non-bearing  acreage  of  the  state,  and  the 
district  south  of  the  Bay  about  25  per  cent,  while  the  San  Joaquin 
Valley  accounts  for  barely  5  per  cent. 

Relatively,  as  well  as  absolutely,  the  bearing  acreage  of  prunes  in 
the  Sacramento  Valley  should  increase  more  rapidly  than  that  of  any 
other  section  of  the  state,  judging  by  the  percentage  the  non-bearing 
acreage  is  of  the  bearing  acreage.  The  acreage  in  this  section  in  1928 
still  to  come  into  bearing  amounts  to  24  per  cent  of  the  present  bearing 
acreage,  in  comparison  with  14  per  cent  in  the  coast  district  north  of 
San  Francisco  Bay,  9  per  cent  in  the  lower  San  Joaquin  Valley, 
and  only  7  per  cent  in  the  coast  district  south  of  the  Bay.  In  the  state 
as  a  whole  an  equivalent  of  12  per  cent  of  the  1928  bearing  acreage  is 
not  yet  of  bearing  ag-e. 

PRODUCTION   IN   CALIFORNIA 

Expansion  Since  1850. — Although  the  prune  tree  was  introduced 
into  California  about  1850,  it  was  not  until  between  1880  and  1890 
that  the  crop  began  to  assume  commercial  importance.  The  state  pro- 
duction in  1890  was  estimated  at  less  than  10,000  tons,  and  at  that 
time  a  large  part  of  the  prunes  consumed  in  the  United  States  were 
imported  from  France  and  Bosnia.  For  at  least  a  decade  thereafter 
California  production  expanded  rapidly,  reaching  nearly  100,000  tons 
in  1902  (see  table  2,  page  19).  With  the  growth  of  California  output, 
imports  of  prunes  into  the  United  States  had  declined  to  less  than 
500  tons  by  1896  and  exports  had  risen  to  nearly  8,000  tons.  From 
1902  to  nearly  1910  the  trend  of  prune  production  in  California  was 
downward.  Trade  estimates  indicate  that  the  production  of  the  state 
in  the  decade  1900  to  1910  averaged  about  66,000  tons,  which  con- 
stituted about  40  per  cent  of  the  commercial  production  of  the  world. 
Since  1910  the  trend  of  production  in  the  state  has  been  upward  and 
most  rapid  since  the  war. 

During  the  same  period  Pacific  Northwest  production  has  showed 
a  gradual  upward  trend.  French  production,  however,  has  declined 
greatly  since  the  decade  before  the  war  and  Jugoslavian  production 
has  decreased  to  some  extent.  The  net  result  is  that  California  now 
produces  about  two-thirds  of  the  commercial  production  of  the  world. 


14 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 


Increase  in  Bearing  Acreage  Since  1910. — The  meagre  data  avail- 
able indicate  that  in  the  decade  from  1910  to  1920  the  prune  industry 
was  expanding"  in  every  important  district  of  the  state  with  the  excep- 
tion of  the  coast  district  south  of  San  Francisco  Bay.  During  this 
ten-year  period  the  bearing  acreage  and  the  production  of  the  state  as 
a  whole  seem  to  have  increased  between  40  and  50  per  cent.  Most  of 
the  expansion  occurred  in  the  coast  district  north  of  San  Francisco 
Bay  and  in  the  Sacramento  Valley,  and  a  small  part  in  the  southern 
portion  of  the  San  Joaquin  Valley.13 


TABLE  1 

California  Prune  Production,  Bearing  Acreage,  and  Yields,  1914-1928,  and 
Forecast  of  Bearing  Acreage  1929-1931 


Bearing  area 

Production 

Year 

Thousands 
of  acres 

Per  cent 
of  average 

Thousands 
of  tons 

Per  cent 
of  average 

Yield  per 

bearing  acre, 

tons 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Averages 
1916,  '17,  '19,  '20,  '21 
1923-1927 

103.8 
141.6 

82.9 
91.5 
101.2 
102.3 
103.0 
104.0 
105.0 
106.3 
111.4 
119.4 
128.7 
138.8 
156.0 
165.2 
172.0 
177.9 
181.0 
182.0 

100 
136 

80 

88 

97 

98 

99 

100 

101 

102 

107 

115 

124 

134 

150 

159 

166 

171 

174 

175 

104 
154 

56 
92 
79 

109 
45 

135 
97 

100 

130 

130 

139 

146 

150 

203* 

185* 

100 
147 

54 

89 

75 
105 

43 
129 

93 

96 
125 
125 
133 
140 
144 
195* 
178* 

1.00 
1.08 

1914 

0.68 

1915 

1.02 

1916 

0.78 

1917 

1.07 

1918 

0.44 

1919..  .                    

1.30 

1920 

0.93 

1921 

0.94 

1922 

1.17 

1923 

1.09 

1924 

1925 

1926 

1.08 
1.05 
0.96 

1927 

1.23* 

1928 

1929 

1.08* 

1930 

1931 

1932 

*  Data  for  1927  and  1928  are  preliminary  and  subject  to  revision. 

Sources  of  data: 

Cols.  1  and  3. — Latest  revised  data,  compiled  from  Annual  Reports  of  the 
California  Crop  Reporting  Service. 

Cols.  2  and  4. —  Relatives  expressed  as  a  percentage  of  the  five-year  average 
1916,  1917,  1919,  1920,  and  1921. 

Col.  5. — Computed  from  cols.  1  and  3. 


1 3  This  paragraph  is  based  upon  county  acreage  data  from  the  federal  censuses 
of  California  of  1910;  and  1920  and  from  reports  of  the  county  horticultural 
commissioners  as  compiled  by  the  California  State  Commission  of  Horticulture 
and  published  (in  most  cases)  in  its  Monthly  Bulletin. 


BUL.462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE    SITUATION  15 

The  solid  black  line  pictured  in  figure  4,  page  16  (see  also  table  1), 
shows  how  rapidly  bearing'  acreage  of  California  prunes  has  been 
increasing  since  1914.  Expansion  was  relatively  slow  before  1921. 
For  several  years  right  after  the  war,  however,  plantings  were,  unfor- 
tunately, greatly  stimulated  by  the  seemingly  relatively  high  returns 
which  growers  received  for  prunes.14  So  many  trees  have  come  into 
bearing  since  1921  that  the  bearing*  acreage  has  increased  about  62 
per  cent.  The  resulting  expansion  in  production  has  caused  a  serious 
decline  in  growers'  returns.  By  1931  the  present  bearing  acreage  of 
172,000  will  probably  have  grown  to  about  182,000  acres,  representing 
an  increase  of  over  75,000  acres  within  the  decade  since  1920. 

Yield  per  Bearing  Acre. — The  data  of  the  California  Crop  Report- 
ing Service  in  table  1  show  that  since  1914  the  average  yield  of  dried15 
prunes  in  the  state  per  bearing  acre16  has  varied  from  as  low  as  1,400 
pounds  to  as  high  as  2,600  pounds,  The  apparently  low  yield  of  less 
than  900  pounds  per  acre  in  1918  was  not  due  to  the  fact  that  the  trees 
bore  lightly  but  was  caused  by  early  rains,  which  ruined  approxi- 
mately half  of  the  crop  during  the  period  of  harvesting  and  drying  in 
September.17  Table  1  shows  that  there  were  no  violent  fluctuations 
in  the  average  yields  for  the  state  during  the  period  1920-1926,  the 
range  being  only  from  1,900  to  2,200  pounds  per  acre.    Yields  in  1919 


14  See  discussion  of  prices  on  pages  47-49. 

15  It  usually  takes  between  2.4  and  2.5  pounds  of  fresh  French  prunes 
(which  constitute  the  bulk  of  the  California  crop)  to  make  one  pound  of  the 
dried  product,  the  drying  ratio  depending  in  part  on  the  maturity  of  the  fruit 
and  the  conditions  under  which  it  is  dried.  (Cruess,  W.  V.  Commercial  fruit 
and  vegetable  products,  p.  344,  345.  McGraw-Hill  Book  Co.,  New  York.  1924.) 
The  large  varieties,  such  as  the  Imperial  and  Sugar,  dry  away  considerably 
more  than  the  French.  ' '  In  the  coast  counties  of  the  drying  ratio  ranges  from  2  : 1 
to  2^:1  and  in  the  interior  valleys  and  southern  California  from  2|:1  to  3:1, 
the  state  average  being  nearly  2|:1. "  (Christie,  A.  W.,  and  L.  C.  Barnard. 
The  principles  and  practice  of  sun-drying  fruit.  California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta. 
Bui.  388:7.     1925.) 

16  The  age  at  which  prune  trees  come  into  bearing  varies  greatly  in  different 
sections  of  the  state.  In  estimating  future  increases  in  bearing  acreage,  trees 
are  generally  considered  to  come  into  bearing  at  about  six  years  of  age. 
Hendrickson  states  that  in  a  period  of  normal  prices  "a  sustaining  crop  of 
prunes  is  not  ordinarily  produced  until  the  trees  are  six  or  seven  years  old. ' ' 
(Hendrickson,  A.  H.  Prune  growing  in  California.  California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta. 
Bui.  328:37.  1923.)  Prune  trees  come  into  full  bearing  between  ten  and  fifteen 
years  of  age. 

17  Cruess,  W.  V.  Salvaging  rain-damaged  prunes.  California  Agr.  Exp. 
Sta.  Cir.  212:1.  1918  (reissued  1921).  Many  growers  who  have  suffered 
losses  from  prunes  being  damaged  by  rain  while  being  sun  dried  are  dehydrat- 
ing their  prunes,  that  is  drying  them  artificially  in  evaporators.  Statistics  on 
the  tonnage  of  prunes  dehydrated  annually  in  California,  1921-1925,  and  data 
on  the  comparative  quality,  yield,  and  costs  of  sun-drying  and  dehydrating 
are  given  in:  Christie,  A.  W.  The  dehydration  of  prunes.  California  Agr. 
Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  404:1-17.     1926. 


16 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


and  1927  were  abnormally  large.  Present  indications  are  that  those 
of  the  1928  crop  will  be  somewhat  above  average.  Average  yields  for 
1923-1927  have  been  nearly  2,200  pounds. 


OUTLOOK   FOR   CALIFORNIA   PRODUCTION 

Figure  4  and  table  1  show  that  the  upward  trend  of  prune  pro- 
duction in  California  since  1910  has  been  just  about  as  rapid  as  that 
of  bearing  acreage.  The  two  curves  in  figure  4,  picturing  production 
and  bearing  acreage,  are  so  related  that  points  indicating  crops  above 
average  in  size  are  above  the  curve  of  relative  bearing  acreage  and 


Ca///or/7/<7  Ph//?e  Proc/t/cf/o/7  o/7c/  £&ar//7gr  /Icreape 

/so 

/60 

\  /JO 
k 

•>>   /0O 

/       N 

/SO 
/6O 

m\ 

\ 

/20\. 

so  I 

40 
20 

- 

Y 

1** 

^' 

.-»' 

1 
1 

■oc/vcr/o/? 
/ 

F»  — ■ 

v^ 

J?&&f/r7gf  demerge 

x 

\  so 

I " 

40 

20 

o 

/ 

M 

** 

\ 
\ 

7 

* 

f 

\ 
\ 

1 
1 

J 

( 

\ 

,^ 

1 

/» 

0    //     /Z     /J    /4    /S    /6     /F    /S     /S    20    2/    22    2 J    24    2S   26    27   23   22    JO    J/' 

Fig.  4. — The  bearing  acreage  of  prunes  in  California  will  apparently  con- 
tinue to  increase  for  several  years,  and  average  production  likewise,  if  average 
yields  per  acre  do  not  decline  greatly.  (Data  from  table  1,  page  14,  and 
table  2,  page  19.) 

those  below  average  fall  below  this  curve.  As  long  as  yields  per  bear- 
ing acre  average  approximately  what  they  have  during  the  last  decade, 
future  production  should  tend  to  fluctuate  above  and  below  the  curve 
of  relative  bearing  acreage,  depending  upon  whether  a  crop  is  above 
or  below  average  in  size. 

Since  1920  both  bearing  acreage  and  production  have  expanded 
rapidly,  but  the  forecasted  increase  in  bearing  acreage,  shown  in 
figure  4,  indicates  that  the  increase  in  production  wiil  not  be  as  rapid 
during  the  next  few  years  unless  yields  per  acre  are  greater  than  they 
have  averaged  since  the  war.  On  the  basis  of  the  curve  of  forecasted 
bearing  acreage,  California  production  may  conservatively  be  esti- 
mated at  an  average  of  about  190,000  tons  a  year  for  several  years, 
compared  with  the  166,000  ton  average  of  the  last  three  years,  1925- 
1927.     Unless  something   unexpected   happens   it   is   probable   that 


BlJL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  17 

the  average  prune  production18' 19  of  California  will  have  increased 
approximately  75  per  cent  in  the  decade  from  1920  to  1930. 

Variables  Which  May  Affect  Average  Future  Yields. — In  consider- 
ing this  forecast  of  the  probable  future  average  production  of  prunes 
it  should  be  remembered  that  it  is  based  on  average  yields  per  acre  in 
recent  years.  If  low  prices  prevail  in  the  prune  industry  for  several 
years  the  production  of  the  state  and  average  yields  per  bearing  acre 
may  be  reduced  below  this  average.  During  the  next  few  years  some 
trees  will  doubtless  be  neglected  and  some  acreage  abandoned  or 
pulled  out.  One  must  also  consider  the  possibility  that  the  "die-back" 
of  prunes  may  reduce  the  acreage  and  production  of  prunes  noticeably 
in  certain  localities  in  the  state  in  the  future.  Economizing  on  pro- 
duction costs  is  likely  to  decrease  the  yields  of  some  orchards.  The 
proportion  of  bearing  acreage  not  yet  in  full  bearing  and  the  amount 
coming  into  bearing  that  is  planted  on  heavy  or  light-yielding  sites 
obviously  will  also  affect  average  yields  in  the  future,  but  how  much 
no  one  knows.  A  detailed  census  enumeration  would  be  necessary 
to  secure  such  facts.  In  Oregon  the  increasing  yields  from  young 
bearing  trees  as  they  approach  full-bearing  age  indicates  a  substantial 
increase  in  production  even  though  no  more  trees  come  into  bearing 
for  several  years. 

PACIFIC    NORTHWEST    PRODUCTION    OUTLOOK 

The  production  of  dried  prunes  in  Oregon  and  Washington  fluc- 
tuates greatly  from  year  to  year  but  has  averaged  nearly  25,000  tons 
during  the  last  three  years  (see  table  2,  page  19).  Critchfield,  who  has 
carefully  studied  the  Pacific  Northwest  prune  situation,  states  that 
"taking  into  account  the  per-acre  production  of  trees  of  different 
ages,  it  is  estimated  that  there  will  be  an  increase  of  about  15  to  20 
per  cent  in  the  average  annual  production  of  northwestern  prunes 
when  all  of  these  trees  are  in  full  bearing, ' '  which  will  be  within  the 
next  six  or  seven  years,20  Production  may,  therefore,  average  over 
30,000  tons  within  a  few  years. 

i8,i9  This  rough  forecast  of  average  production  does  not  apply  to  any  one  year 
but  refers  to  an  average  of  at  least  three  years.  Actual  production  in  any 
given  year  included  in  the  period  of  years  for  which  the  forecast  is  made  may 
be  considerably  above  or  below  the  predicted  average,  since  yields  per  acre 
may  change  greatly  from  year  to  year,  making  it  impossible  ordinarily  to 
predict  as  much  as  a  year  ahead  of  time  what  the  approximate  yield  per  acre 
for  any  particular  year  will  be.  However,  one  can  estimate  with  a  fair  degree 
of  accuracy  what  average  yields  over  a  period  of  several  years  may  be,  judging 
largely  by  average  yields  in  the  past. 

20  See  Critchfield,  B.  H.  Demand,  marketing,  and  production  of  Oregon  and 
Washington  prunes.     U.  S.  Dept.  Agr.  Dept.  Circ.  416:35-39.     1927. 


18 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


WORLD    PRODUCTION    OUTLOOK 

Considering  the  outlook  in  both  California  and  the  Pacific  North- 
west it  seems  that  the  trend  of  United  States  production  of  dried 
prunes  may  be  upward  for  several  years.  Unless  an  unusually  large 
mortality  in  acreage  occurs  or  average  yields  per  acre  decline  appre- 
ciably, national  production  of  prunes  during  the  next  few  years  may 
average  in  the  neighborhood  of  220,000  tons  a  year.  If  production  in 
France  should  remain  at  an  average  of  about  10,000  tons,  and  Jugo- 
slavian exports  at  approximately  40,000,  world  commercial  produc- 
tion of  dried  prunes,  which  has  averaged  about  230,000  tons  in  recent 
years  (see  table  2,  page  19),  may  average  270,000,  or  as  large  as  the 
crop  of  1927,  over  a  period  of  several  years. 


Ccm/7%rc/a/  Ot/f/x/f  of  frfed ffajnes 
fy  Countries, /&99-/S27 


Fig.  5. — Prune  production  in  France  has  declined  greatly  during  the  last 
twenty  years.  In  California  and  the  Pacific  Northwest  it  has  expanded  noticeably, 
and  most  rapidly  in  California.  The  output  of  Jugoslavia  reached  its  peak  in 
1904.  Its  average  since  the  war  has  been  considerably  greater  than  the  1909- 
1913  average.      (Data  from  table  2.) 


Bul.  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION 


19 


TABLE  2 
Commercial  Production  of  Dried  Prunes  by  Countries,  1898-1928 


Year 

Pacific 

California 

U.  S.  total 

Jugoslavia 

France 

World 

Northwest 
production 

production 

production 

exports 

production 

total 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

Thousands  of  short  tons,  i.e.,  000  omitted 

1898 

8.5 

45.2 

53.7 

45 

44.0 

143 

1899 

1.5 

57.1 

58.6 

55 

10  0 

124 

1900 

5.0 

87.0 

92.0 

49 

45.0 

186 

1901 

12.0 

40.8 

52.8 

42 

10.0 

105 

1902 

6.5 

98.5 

105.0 

70 

5.5 

180 

1903 

15.0 

82.5 

97.5 

37 

2.7 

140 

1904 

3.0 

67.5 

71.5 

108 

58.8 

238 

1905 

5.5 

31.3 

36.8 

50 

45.5 

132 

1906 

7.5 

92.5 

100.0 

55 

40.0 

195 

1907 

12.0 

53.0 

65.0 

35 

36.8 

137 

1908 

8.0 

28.5 

36.5 

85 

47.2 

169 

1909 

15.0 

75.0 

90.0 

15 

44.7 

150 

1910 

10.0 

40.0 

50.0 

35 

9.0 

94 

1911 

11.5 

95.0 

107.0 

50 

13.1 

170 

1912 

4.0 

102.5 

106.5 

5 

19.5 

131 

1913 

14.0 

48.0 

62.0 

48 

13.9 

124 

1914 

5.3 
9.3 
21.3 
11.5 
30.5 
17.5 
17.5 

56.0 
92.5 
78.5 

109  0 
45.0 

135.0 
97.5 

61.3 
101.8 

99.8 
120.5 

75.5 
157.5 
115.0 

14.1 
13.8 
5.3 
7.6 
1.2 
5.8 
13.9 

1915 

1916 

1917 

1918 

1919 

1920 

53 

182 

1921 

13.3 

100.0 

113.3 

26 

6.4 

146 

1922 

36.0 

130.0 

166.0 

57 

2.4 

225 

1923 

25.0 

130.0 

155.0 

62 

29.7 

247 

1924 

25.0 

139.0 

164.0 

5 

9.0 

178 

1925 

13.0 

146.0 

159.0 

48 

4.0 

211 

1926 

45.0 

150.0 

195.0 

52 

9.4 

256 

1927 

23.0 

203.0 

226.0 

34 

9.3 

269 

1928 

2.3* 

185.0* 

187.3* 

28* 

1.5* 

217* 

Averages 

1899-03 

8.0 

73.2 

81.2 

51 

14.6 

147 

1904-08 

7.2 

54.6 

62.0 

67 

45.7 

174 

1909-13 

10.9 

72.1 

83.1 

31 

20.0 

134 

1923-27 

26.2 

153.6 

179.8 

40 

12.3 

232 

Per  cent  of  world  total 

1899-03 

5.4 

49.8 

55.2 

34.7 

9.9 

100 

1904-08 

4.1 

31.4 

35.6 

38.5 

26.3 

100 

1909-13 

8.1 

53.8 

62.0 

23.1 

14.9 

100 

1923-27 

11.3 

66  2 

77.5 

17.2 

5.3 

100 

*  Data  for  1928  are  preliminary  estimates  from:  California  Division  of  Markets,  Prune  Market 
Information  Bul.  11,  (mimeo.)  Nov.  17,  1928. 

Sources  of  data: 

Col.  2. — Figures  through  1926  compiled  from  California  Fruit  News  and 
Eeports  of  the  Oregon  State  Board  of  Horticulture,  the  earlier  figures  being 
rough  estimates  made  in  most  cases  by  the  trade  or  by  Oregon  county  horti- 
cultural inspectors.  Data  for  1927  from:  California  Division  of  Markets,  Prune 
Market  Information,  Bul.  11   (mimeo.),  Nov.  17,  1928. 

Col.  3. — Data  through  1918  compiled  from  '  trade '  estimates  made  by  the 
editor  of,  and  published  in,  the  California  Fruit  News.  Data  for  1919-1927 
compiled  from  annual  California  Crop  Eeports.     There  are  some  indications, 

(Continued  at  top  of  page  20) 


20  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

(Continued  from  page  19) 
not  altogether  conclusive,  that  estimates  for  a  decade  or  more  previous  to  1923 
are  too  low  as  compared  with  the  estimates  for  1923-1927. 

Col.  4. — Sum  of  items  for  corresponding  years  in  cols.  2  and  3. 

Col.  5. — Data  for  1898-1908  based  on  very  rough  estimates  of  Bosnian  and 
Serbian  exports  of  dried  prunes  .by  crop  years,  as  reported  in  scattered  news 
items  in  the  California  Fruit  Grower  (now  California  Fruit  News),  and  upon 
official  data  of  calendar-year  exports  of  Serbia,  and  of  Austria-Hungary 
exports,  imports,  movements  through  the  country  from  Serbia  to  other  countries, 
and  movement  between  Austria  and  Hungary.  See  footnote  23,  page  21,  for 
the  pre-war  prune-producing  areas  now  included  in  Jugoslavia.  Data  for  1909- 
1913  are  the  sum  of  Serbian  exports  by  calendar  years  from  official  sources 
and  of  Bosnian  exports  from  unofficial  sources  as  reported  by  the  Royal 
Inspector  of  Agriculture,  Tuzla,  Bosnia.  Data  for  1920-1928  are  for  approxi- 
mate crop  years  and  are  based  on  official  Jugoslavian  export  statistics,  supplied, 
as  were  1909-1912  data  also,  by  the  Division  of  Historical  and  Statistical 
Research,  U.  S.  Bureau  of  Agricultural  Economics.  See  footnote  22,  page  21, 
for  reasons  why  Jugoslavian  exports  are  used  instead  of  production  estimates. 

Col.  6. — Data  for  1898-1903  are  rough  trade  estimates  compiled  from  the 
California  Fruit  Grower.  Years  1904-1923,  official  estimates  from  Agricole 
Statistique,  compiled  by  Lucien  Memminger,  American  Consul  at  Bordeaux, 
France,  and  published  in  California  Fruit  News,  April  17,  1926,  p.  4.  Years 
1924-1927  compiled  from  mimeographed  releases  enumerated  as  sources  for 
col.  5.  Conversion  factor,  1  metric  quintal  equals  220.46  pounds,  or  0.11023 
short  tons. 

Col.  7. — Total  of  the  countries  included  in  this  table.  A  few  thousand  tons 
not  included  in  this  total  are  produced  elsewhere.     See  page  23. 


PRODUCTION    IN    FOREIGN   COUNTRIES21 

Relative  Importance. — Nearly  one-fourth  of  the  average  world 
commercial22  crop  of  about  230,000  tons  of  prunes  has  been  produced 
outside  of  the  United  States  in  recent  years  (see  figures  5  and  6,  and 
table  2).  The  southern  European  country  of  Jugoslavia,  the  principal 
competitor  of  the  United  States  in  international  trade  in  prunes,  now 
contributes  an  average  of  nearly  20  per  cent  of  world  commercial 
production.  France,  the  only  other  important  country  producing  and 
exporting  prunes  on  a  commercial  scale,  has  averaged  only  about 
5  per  cent,  while  California  accounted  for  about  6.6  per  cent,  during 
the  five  years  1923-1927.  The  output  of  the  Pacific  Northwest  now 
averages  about  12  per  cent  of  the  world  total  and  approximately 
15  per  cent  of  our  national  total.  


^  21  The  status  of,  and  the  outlook  for  production  and  international  trade-in 
dried  prunes  in  the  chief  prune-producing  countries  of  the  world,  is  discussed 
in  moderate  detail  in:  Wheeler,  L.  A.  International  trade  in  dried  fruit,  U.  S. 
Dept.  Com.,  Bur.  For.  and  Dom.  Com.  Trade  Promotion  Series  Bui.  44:40-55. 
1927.  The  same  information  is  briefly  summarized  by  Wheeler  in  Critchfield, 
B.  H.  Demand,  marketing,  and  production  of  Oregon  and  Washington  prunes. 
U.  S.  Dept.  Agr.  Dept.  Cir.  416:23-25,  34-40.  1927.  The  authors  of  both  of 
these  bulletins  based  much  of  their  discussion  of  the  French  prune  industry 
upon  an  unpublished  report  (about  70  typewritten  pages)  from  Consul  Lucien 
Memminger,  Bordeaux,  November,  1925;  and  much  of  the  discussion  of  the 
22  See  page  21. 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  21 

Jugoslavia. — The  limited  available  statistics  on  Jugoslavian  dried- 
prune  production23  indicate  that  the  average  crop  since  the  war  has 
been  about  70,000  tons,  or  approximately  30  per  cent  of  world  pro- 
duction (including  Jugoslavian  domestic  consumption)  and  slightly 
over  50  per  cent  as  much  as  that  of  California,  Post-war  world  com- 
mercial production  (excluding  Jugoslavian  domestic  consumption)  has 
been  appreciably  greater  than  the  average  for  the  five  years  1909- 
1913  (see  figure  5).  Indications  are  that  post-war  exports  of  Jugo- 
slavian prunes  have  been  approximately  one-third  greater  than  during 
the  period  1909-1913  immediately  preceding  the  war,  but  about  40 
per  cent  less  than  during  the  five  years  1904-1908  (see  table  2). 


Jugoslavian  industry  upon  mimeographed  releases  of  reports  from  Consul  K.  S. 
Patton,  Belgrade,  and  from  Edwin  Smith,  fruit  specialist  of  the  U.  S.  Bureau 
of  Agricultural  Economics  in  Europe.  These  reports  and  current  information 
bringing  them  up  to  date  are  found  in  the  U.  S.  Bureau  of  Foreign  and 
Domestic  Commerce  mimeographed  weekly  news  release,  Foodstuffs  'Bound 
the  World — Canned  and  Dried  Fruits  section;  and  in  the  U.  S.  Bureau  of 
Agricultural  Economics  mimeographed  releases  on  Foreign  News  on  Prunes 
issued  frequently  at  irregular  intervals  beginning  August,  1925.  The  Division 
of  Markets  of  the  California  Department  of  Agriculture  is  now  issuing  mimeo- 
graphed releases  on  the  current  production  and  marketing  situation  of  dried 
prunes  which  includes  much  of  the  more  important  information  on  prunes  that 
is  issued  in  the  two  series  of  federal  releases  noted  above. 

22  World  commercial  dried-prune  production  as  used  throughout  this  bulletin 
refers  to  the  data  in  table  2,  which  include  the  exported  portion  of  Jugoslavian 
production  but  not  that  consumed  at  home.  Export  data  have  been  used 
instead  of  estimates  of  dried-prune  production  because  they  are  of  considerably 
more  value,  for  many  purposes,  than'  the  dried  production  estimates  available 
for  years  since  the  war,  being  more  accurate  and  of  greater  commercial  signi- 
ficance. Moreover,  the  available  data  before  the  war  are  estimates  of  exported 
or  exportable  surplus  rather  than  of  dried-prune  production.  The  domestic 
consumption  of  Jugoslavian  dried-prunes  probably  varies  but  little  and  hence 
the  proportion  of  the  dried-prune  crop  exported  varies  relatively  more  widely 
than  production. 

The  unofficial  estimates  of  Jugoslavian  total  dried-prune  production  since 
the  war  are  very  rough  approximations  only,  based  on  the  probable  utilization 
of  the  plum  crop,  40  per  cent  being  considered  as  about  the  normal  proportion 
of  the  total  plum  crop  dried.  These  estimates  of  the  American  Consul,  K.  S. 
Patton,  at  Belgrade  (compiled  from  mimeographed  releases  of  U.  S.  Bureau  of 
Agricultural  Economics,  Foreign  News  on  Prunes,  and  U.  S.  Bureau  of 
Foreign  and  Domestic  Commerce,  Foodstuffs  'Bound  the  World:  Canned  and 
Dried  Fruits)  in  thousands  of  tons  are  1920,  66.4;  1921,  80.3;  1922,  83.6;  1923, 
85.8;  1924,  28.8;  1925,  80.8;  1926,  83.0;  1927,  not  available. 

23  Before  the  war  the  prune-producing  areas  of  the  present  Kingdom  of  the 
Serbs,  Croats,  and  Slovenes — popularly  known  as  Jugoslavia — were  chiefly 
those  of  Bosnia  and  of  Northern  Serbia.  So-called  Bosnian  prunes  include  a 
considerable  output  from  Herzegovina,  just  south  of  Bosnia,  and  Croatia  to 
the  north,  as  well  as  from  Bosnia  proper.  Before  the  war  these  provinces 
were  all  included  in  the  Austrian  Empire,  while  the  Serbian  prune-producing 
area  was  in  Serbia  proper.  Since  the  war  the  Serbian  prune-producing  area 
has  apparently  accounted  for  roughly  about  two-thirds  of  the  Jugoslavian 
dried-prune  output,  the  remainder  coming  largely  from  the  Bosnian  area  (including 
Herzegovina  and  Croatia). 


22  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Since  the  war  the  relative  fluctuations  from  year  to  year  in  Jugo- 
slavian production,  and  particularly  in  the  exportable  surplus  of  dried 
prunes,  have  been  much  greater  than  for  California  prunes  but  much 
less  than  for  the  French  crop.  These  upsetting  variations  are 
accounted  for  by  great  changes  in  yield  per  acre  and  in  the  amount 
of  the  plum  crop  utilized  for  drying  and  particularly  for  exporting. 
In  spite  of  the  commercial  importance  of  the  exports  of  dried  prunes 
from  Jugoslavia,  plum-growing  was  originally,  and  still  is,  secondary 
to  the  production  of  grain.  The  drying  of  prunes  for  export  is,  more- 
over, of  secondary  importance  to  the  making  of  plum  brandy  for 
domestic  use.  The  consumption  of  plums  at  home  makes  it  very 
difficult  to  forecast  accurately  the  probable  exportable  surplus  of 
dried  prunes  for  any  one  year  and  hence,  in  some  years,  introduces 
a  large  element  of  uncertainty  in  the  potential  demand  for  California 
prunes  in  European  markets. 

Those  best  informed  regarding  the  outlook  for  dried-prune  pro- 
duction in  Jugoslavia  during  the  next  decade  or  more  believe  that 
prunes  from  there  will  probably  continue  to  offer  as.  much  competi- 
tion to  our  prunes  m  European  markets,  on  the  average,  as  in  recent 
years,  and  that  possibly  the  competition  from  this  source  may  increase. 
Large  plantings  of  seedlings  since  the  war  are  the  strongest  indication 
of  the  possibility  of  increasing  plum  production  in  the  future,  but 
these  are  said  to  be  largely  of  a  variety  producing  plums  better  suited 
for  brandy-making  than  for  drying.  The  government  is  trying  to 
encourage  the  prune  industry  by  subsidizing  plum-tree  nurseries  and 
by  regulations  designed  to  improve  the  method  of  drying  and  pre- 
paring prunes  for  market.  On  the  other  hand  recent  reports  indicate 
that  possibly  insect  and  fungous  pests  may  be  in  jurying  the  prune 
orchards  somewhat  more  than  in  the  past.  There  has  been  no  notice- 
able upward  trend  in  either  dried-prune  production  or  exports  since 
1920.  Upon  the  basis  of  the  limited  facts  available  one  cannot  fore- 
cast the  trend  of  either  with  any  assurance.  Because  of  the  com- 
mercial importance  of  the  Jugoslavian  dried-prune  industry  we  need 
more  and  better  information  regarding  its  significant  developments. 

France. — The  average  production  of  prunes  in  France  since  the 
war  has  been  very  small  and  has,  moreover,  fluctuated  violently  from 
year  to  year  (see  fig.  6).  The  post-war  average  of  less  than  11,000 
tons  is  only  about  one-half  the  1909-1913  average  and  less  than  one- 
fourth  of  that  for  1904-1908  (see  table  2).  Since  the  war  the  output 
has  ranged  from  as  high  as  30,000  tons  to  as  low  as  about  2,000.  These 
violent  fluctuations  in  output  result  in  decided  variations  in  French 


Bul.462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY    AND    PRICE    SITUATION 


23 


foreign  trade  in  prunes  since  France  is  on  an  export  basis  in  years 
of  large  prune  crops,  but  on  an  import  basis  whenever  the  crop  is 
small.  As  prune  production  in  France  is  apparently  not  tending  to 
increase,  it  seems  unlikely  that  California  prunes  will  meet  any  greater 
competition  from  this  source  in  the  near  future  than  in  recent  years. 
Great  fluctuations  in  the  size  of  the  crops,  however,  may  be  expected  as 
in  the  past. 


Wor/d  Co/77/77erc/a/  Pr/ed-Prc//??  Proc/t/cr/os? 
jtx/  Cov/yfr/es,  /220-/92& 


zoo 


/92I 


/92Z 


/9Z3 


1924 


/925 


/926 


/927 


/928 


Pig.  6. — Largely  because  of  increased  production  in  California,  which  pro- 
duces two-thirds  of  the  world  commercial  production  of  prunes,  there  has  been 
an  upward  trend  in  the  world  output  of  prunes  since  1920.  Fluctuations  in 
California,  and  hence  in  world,  production  have  been  relatively  small  com- 
pared with  variations  in  the  output  of  Jugoslavia,  France,  and  the  Pacific 
Northwest.     (Data  from  table  2.) 


Other  Countries.24" — Although  dried-prune  production  has  never 
been  of  commercial  importance  in  any  foreign  countries  besides 
France  and  Jugoslavia,  there  are  a  number  of  countries  in  which 
there  are  possibilities  of  future  development.  Roumania,  Australia, 
South  Africa,  and  Persia  all  produce  small  quantities  of  dried  prunes, 
substantially  all  of  which  are  consumed  at  home.  In  the  first  three 
of  these  countries,  however,  the  dried-prune  industry  might  be 
developed  on  a  commercial  scale.  Roumania,  the  agriculture  of  which 
is  in  many  ways  similar  to  that  of  Jugoslavia,  already  produces  large 
quantities  of  plums  suitable  for  drying,  but  most  of  these  are  eaten  in 


24  In  1923  Australia  produced  584  short  tons  of  dried  prunes.  The  Union 
of  South  Africa  has  averaged  less  than  1,000'  tons  in  recent  years,  and  Persia 
approximately  1,000  tons.  See:  Wheeler,  L.  A.  International  trade  in  dried 
fruit.  U.  S.  Dept.  Commerce,  Bur.  For.  and  Dom.  Commerce,  Trade  Promotion 
Series  Bui.  44:52-53.  1927.  Roumania  sometimes  dries  as  many  as  4,000  or 
5,000  tons  of  prunes  of  very  small  sizes. 


24 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


the  fresh  state  or  made  into  brandy  and  jam.  The  possibilities  of 
future  competition  from  Australian  and  South  African  prunes  are 
significant  because  of  the  adaptability  of  large  areas  in  these  countries 
to  plum  growing,  together  with  the  fact  that,  as  British  countries, 
their  largest  export  market  would  most  likely  be  the  United  Kingdom, 
which  is  now  second  only  to  Germany  as  a  foreign  market  for 
California  prunes. 

TABLE  3 

Average  Dried-Prune  Exports  from  Chief  Producing  Regions  to  Principal 

Markets,  1923-1927 


Principal  markets 


Germany 

United  Kingdom. 

France 

Netherlands 

Belgium 

Scandinavia 

Canada 

Others 


Total. 


Percentage  of  grand  total.. 


Producing 

regions 

Average  1923-1927 

Average 
1923-26 

Total 

*Oregon 
and  Wash- 
ington 

California 

United 
States 

Jugo- 
slavia 

France 

Thousands  of  pounds  i.e.,  000  omitted 

7,223 
437 
138 
809 

1,395 

2,052 


19, 040 * 


7.3 


35,341 
27,290 
21,603 
12,282 
4,373 
12,621 
17,301 
12,980 


143,791 


55.1 


42,327 
34,513 
22,040 
12,420 
5,182 
14,016 
17,301 
15,032 


162,831 


62.4 


27,100 

1,591 

2,262 

1,078 

233 

758 

t 

55.269J 

88,291 


33.9 


645 

2,726 


796 
465 

t 
t 
,994 


9,636 


3.7 


70,072 
38,830 
24,302 
14,294 
5,880 
14,774 
17,301 
75,295 


260,758 


100.0 


Per  cent  of  total  of  each  producing  region 


Germany 

United  Kingdom 

France 

Netherlands 

Belgium 

Scandinavia 

Canada 

Others 


36.7 

37.9 

2.3 

0.7 

4.3 

7.3 

* 

10.8 


Total. 


100.0 


24.6 
19.0 
15.0 
8.5 
3.0 
8.9 
12.0 
9.0 


100.0 


26.0 
21.2 

13.5 
7.6 
3.3 


10 


100.0 


30.7 
1.8 
2.6 
1.2 
0.2 
0.9 
t 

62.6 

100.0 


6.7 
28.3 


4.8 
t 
t 
51. 9J 


100.0 


26.9 
14.9 
9.3 
5.5 
2.3 
5.7 
6.6 
28.8 


100.0 


*  These  data  for  Oregon  and  Washington  do  not  account  for  the  total  exports  of  northwestern  prunes 

as  they  are  overseas  exports  direct  from  the  Oregon  customs  district  only. 

t  Data  not  available  for  these  countries  individually  and  hence  are  included  in  "others." 

t  Most  Jugoslavian  prune  exports  go  to  central  and  southern  European  countries.   During  the  period 

1923-1927  Italy  took  21.3  per  cent,  Austria  15.8,  Czechoslovakia  13.4,  Hungary  5.0,  and  Switzerland  4.2 

per  cent. 

Sources  of  data: 

Date  are  all  for  calendar  years. 

Col.  1. — Compiled  from  official  data  of  the  U.  S.  Bureau  Foreign  and  Domestic 
Commerce  for  this  district.  Data  are  not  available  on  exports  of  Oregon  and 
Washington  prunes  to  Canada  nor  by  rail  and  water  to  oversea  countries  via 


Bui*.  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND    PRICE   SITUATION 


25 


other  U.  S.  customs  districts.  Indirect  exports  overseas,  however,  are  believed 
to  be  relatively  small. 

Col.  2. — California  exports  are  computed  by  subtracting  Oregon  and  Wash- 
ington exports  from  United  States  exports  and  hence  indicated  California 
exports  to  Canada  include  an  unknown  amount  of  exports  of  northwestern  prunes. 

Col.  3. — Compiled  from  TJ.  S.  Bur.  For.  Dom.  Commerce,  Foreign  Commerce 
and  Navigation  of  the  United  States. 

Cols.  4  and  5. — Compiled  from  official  Jugoslavian  and  French  data  from: 
Wheeler,  L.  A.  International  trade  in  dried  fruit,  U.  S.  Bur.  For.  Dom.,  Com- 
merce Trade  Promotion  Series  Bui.  44:47,  52.  1927;  and  from  Foodstuffs 
'Bound  the  World:  Canned  and  Dried  Fruit. 


INTERNATIONAL   TRADE 

Relative  Importance  of  Exporting  Countries. — An  average  of  over 
one-half  of  the  estimated  world  production  (total  of  commercial  and 
non-commercial)  of  dried  prunes  has  entered  into  international  trade 
during  the  last  five  years,  and  the  proportion  of  world  exports  which 
has  originated  in  each  producing  region  has  corresponded  roughly 


US.  prune  Pr&tisc/yo/?,  /Deports  &   J?o/vesf/c  S<spp/</,  /SS<9-/S>27 


ISO 


too: 


Fig.  7. — United  States  production,  consumption,  and  exports  of  prunes  have 
all  increased  much  more  rapidly  than  population  during  the  last  twenty  years. 
(Data  from  table  5,  page  31.) 

to  the  percentage  of  the  world  dried-prune  crop  which  each  has  pro- 
duced. Of  the  average  annual  world  export  of  dried  prunes  of  over 
260  million  pounds  in  recent  years,  the  United  States  has  exported 
over  62  per  cent.  California  alone  has  contributed  approximately 
55  per  cent,  Jugoslavia  nearly  34  per  cent,  the  Pacific  Northwest 
slightly  over  7  per  cent,  and  France  less  than  4  per  cent  (table  3). 

Trend  and  Fluctuations  in  United  States  Exports. — The  trend  in 
exports  of  prunes  from  the  United  States  has  been  rapidly  upward 
during  the  last  thirty  years,  with  the  exception  of  the  period  during 


26  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

the  war  (see  fig.  7).  The  rapid,  increase  in  the  importance  of  foreign 
markets  is  shown  by  the  fact  that  in  the  period  1899-1903  about  25 
per  cent  of  average  national  production  of  approximately  162  million 
pounds  was  exported,  compared  with  48  per  cent  of  an  average  of 
165  million  pounds  in  the  period  1909-1913.  During  the  five  years 
1922-1926,  44  per  cent  of  an  average  of  about  328  million  pounds 
has  been  exported. 

A  study  of  figure  7  shows  that  in  the  past  there  have  been  rela- 
tively25 violent  fluctuations  from  year  to  year  in  the  quantity  of 
prunes  exported.  Since  the  war,  however,  these  variations  have  been 
smaller  than  in  pre-war  days.  Fluctuations  in  California  production 
and  Jugoslavian  exports  account  for  much  of  the  variation  in  our 
annual  exports.  The  percentage  of  our  production  exported  has  not 
varied  nearly  as  much  as  the  actual  quantity  exported. 

Relative  fluctuations  in  our  exports  to  important  individual  coun- 
tries (see  table  14,  page  68)  have  been  the  smallest  for  Canada,  largely 
because  of  its  proximity  to  the  United  States  and  its  distance  from 
European  producing  areas.  Exports  to  the  United  Kingdom  have 
varied  considerably  more  than  have  those  to  Canada  but  much  less 
than  those  to  Germany.  Most  of  the  violent  fluctuations  in  German 
imports  from  this  country  seem  to  be  largely  the  result  of  changes  in 
the  quantities  imported  from  Jugoslavia  and  the  latter,  in  turn,  are 
largely  due  to  changes  in  Jugoslavian  production  and  total  exportable 
surplus.  During  the  last  five  years  Germany  has  received  about  60 
per  cent  of  her  imports  from  the  United  States,  whereas  the  United 
Kingdom  has  taken  nearly  90  per  cent  of  hers  from  us. 

Competition  in  Chief  Foreign  Markets. — The  people  of  Western 
Europe  are  the  greatest  consumers  of  dried  prunes.  They  have 
imported  nearly  95  per  cent  of  world  exports  in  recent  years  and 

25  Significance  of  Semi-Logarithmic  or  Ratio  Charts. — In  picturing  statistical 
data  one  frequently  wishes  to  emphasize  comparisons  of  percentage  or  pro- 
portional changes  rather  than  absolute  amounts.  For  the  purpose  of  showing 
such  relative  changes  a  ratio  scale,  such  as  the  vertical  scale  in  figure  7,  is  most 
useful.  Equal  vertical  distances  on  the  semi-logarithmic  paper  on  which  the 
figure  is  plotted  picture  equal  percentages  (rates)  of  change.  For  convenience 
in  plotting  and  reading,  however,  the  scale  has  been  numbered  in  millions  of 
pounds.  With  the  usual  or  arithmetic  scale  on  ordinary  cross-section  paper, 
such  as  was  used  in  figure  4,  page  16,  the  distance  between  the  vertical  lines 
20  and  40  is  pictured  as  twice  as  great  as  the  distance  from  10  to  20.  In 
figure  7,  however,  the  vertical  distance  from  20  to  40  is  just  equal  to  the 
distance  from  10  to  20',  for  the  reason  that  20  bears  the  same  ratio  to  40  that 
10  does  to  20.  It  is  obvious  that  20  is  twice  as  great  as  10;  in  other  words, 
20  is  100  per  cent  greater  than  10.  Likewise,  401  is  twice  as  great  as  20,  or, 
in  other  words,  40  is  100  per  cent  greater.  Equal  distances  on  the  scale  cor- 
respond to  equal  relative  or  percentage  changes,  and  not,  as  in  figure  4,  to  equal 
absolute  differences:  Equal  percentage  increases  over  a  series  of  years,  when 
plotted  on  semi-logarithmic  paper,  are  represented  by  a  straight  line. 


BUI*.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  27 

nearly  90  per  cent  of  our  own  exports,  Canada  being  the  only  impor- 
tant importer  of  United  States  prunes  aside  from  countries  in  Western 
Europe  (See  table  3).  Germany  imports  far  more  prunes  than  any 
other  country  and  is  the  most  important  foreign  outlet  for  both  Jugo- 
slavian and  United  States  prunes.  During  the  last  five  years  nearly 
27  per  cent  of  world  exports  went  to  Germany,  over  30  per  cent  of 
Jugoslavian  exports  going  there  and  about  25  per  cent  of  our  own. 
The  United  Kingdom,  the  next  most  important  prune  importer,  took 
practically  15  per  cent  of  Jugoslavian  exports  during  this  period  and 
over  20  per  cent  of  those  from  the  United  States.  The  United  King- 
dom is  the  leading  market  for  exports  from  France.  France  ranks 
third  in  the  tonnage  of  prunes  imported  from  the  United  States  and 
also  from  the  world.  As  a  foreign  market  for  California  prunes 
Canada  ranks  fourth,  following  France  in  importance.  The  Nether- 
lands have  averaged  fifth,  Scandinavia  (Sweden,  Denmark,  and 
Norway  as  a  group)  sixth,  and  Belgium  seventh  during  the  last  five 
years. 

Jugoslavian  Competition  in  Germany. — Partly  because  of  the  rela- 
tively lower  prices  at  which  Jugoslavian  prunes  are  usually  sold,  they 
ordinarily  find  preference  over  ours  in  German  markets.  Our  exports 
to  Germany,  therefore,  vary  almost  inversely  with  Jugoslavian  pro- 
duction and  exports  to  Germany.  In  six  of  the  last  eight  years  Ger- 
many has  secured  a  larger  percentage  of  her  total  imports  of  dried 
prunes  from  Jugoslavia  than  from  the  United  States.  On  the  average, 
however,  less  than  40  per  cent  of  total  German  prune  imports  during 
the  last  five  years  (1923-1927)  were  obtained  from  Jugoslavia  and  60 
per  cent  from  the  United  States  (see  table  3) .  Very  small  Jugoslavian 
production  and  exports  in  the  crop  years  1924  and  1927  plus  un- 
usually heavy  California  production  and  exports  in  1927  accounts  for 
this  situation.  Nearly  one-fifth  of  Jugoslavian  prune  exports  have 
gone  to  Czechoslovakia  during  the  last  four  years.  There  has  been  a 
decided  tendency  for  both  the  quantity  and  the  proportion  of  Jugo- 
slavian exports  to  Czechoslovakia  to  increase  since  1920,  while  there 
has  apparently  been  a  slight  tendency  for  the  proportion  exported  to 
Germany  to  decline.  If  these  tendencies  should  continue,  the  result 
may  be  an  increase  in  German  imports  of  our  prunes.26 

26  The  recent  reduction  in  the  German  tariff  on  prunes,  which  became  effec- 
tive December  20,  1927,  should  benefit  the  American  industry.  The  import 
duty  on  unpacked  prunes  in  sacks  or  barrels  of  at  least  176  pounds  is  reduced 
from  $1.08  per  hundred  pounds  to  $0.65,  and  that  on  prunes  otherwise  packed 
from  $2.16  to  $0.86.  The  reduction  on  "prunes  otherwise  packed' '  should 
stimulate  exports  of  packed  prunes,  since  the  high  duty  heretofore  prevailing 
made  it  necessary  to  ship  most  of  the  prunes  destined  for  Germany  in  bulk. 
See  California  Fruit  News.     Jan.  7,  1928,  p.  8. 


28  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Chief  Markets  for  Jugoslavian  Prunes. — Most  Jugoslavian  prune 
exports  go  to  those  European  countries  which,  with  the  exception  of 
Germany,  import  very  few  prunes  from  the  United  States.  These 
countries,  however,  re-export  a  considerable  part  of  their  Jugoslavian 
prune  imports  to  other  European  markets  such  as  the  Scandinavian 
countries  and  Poland.  Germany,  the  most  important  market  for 
Jugoslavian  prunes,  has  taken  over  30  per  cent  of  those  exported  in 
recent  years.  In  addition,  nearly  60  per  cent  have  been  exported 
to  five  neighboring  countries,  Italy  taking  approximately  21  per  cent, 
Austria  16,  Czechoslovakia  13,  Hungary  5,  and  Switzerland  4  per  cent. 
Jugoslavian  export  trade  is  largely  confined  to  neighboring  European 
countries  chiefly  because  of  the  interior  position  of  the  country  and 
the  large  demand  for  cheap  prunes  in  central  and  northwestern 
Europe. 

French  Foreign  Trade. — France  is  the  only  prune-producing  coun- 
try of  any  importance  which  imports  as  well  as  exports  dried  prunes. 
Since  the  war,  imports,  which  come  from  California  chiefly,  have 
averaged  about  three  times  the  exports.  The  prunes  imported  by  the 
French  are  largely  consumed  at  home  and  are  in  general  of  a  lower 
quality  than  the  superior  pack  which  is  exported.  During  the  last 
two  decades  French  exports  of  prunes  have  declined  even  more  rapidly 
than  production.  The  production  of  prunes  in  France  since  the  war 
has  averaged  only  about  one-half  of  the  1909-1913  average  (see  table 
2),  whereas  exports  are  only  slightly  more  than  one-third  of  the  pre- 
war figure.27 

The  United  Kingdom  has  long  been  the  chief  market  for  prunes 
exported  from  France,  nearly  one-third  going  to  this  country  since 
the  war.  Argentina,  Germany,  and  the  Netherlands  are  next  in 
importance,  each  taking  slightly  over  10  per  cent.  The  proportion 
taken  by  Germany  has  decreased  greatly  since  pre-war  days  and  that 
of  the  Netherlands  has  remained  about  the  same.  The  proportion 
taken  by  Argentina,  about  10  per  cent  of  French  exports,  shows  a 
noticeable  increase,  although  the  absolute  quantity,  an  average  of 
about  two  million  pounds,  is  still  small. 


27  To  try  to  encourage  domestic  production  of  prunes,  France  recently  greatly 
increased  the  protective  tariff  on  prunes  imported  from  other  countries.  It  is 
difficult  to  estimate  the  effect  of  the  new  rates  upon  our  exports  to  France, 
Consul  Lucien  Memminger  at  Bordeaux  reports.  "The  new  rates,  which  went 
into  effect  on  March  16,  provide  for  a  duty  of  80  francs  per  100  kilos  ($1,427 
per  100  pounds)  for  all  prunes  of  whatever  size  packed  in  cases  or  boxes.  For 
prunes  otherwise  packed  (usually  undipped  prunes  in  sacks)  the  new  rates  are: 
80  franc  per  100  kilos,  ($1,427  per  100  pounds)  for  prunes  counting  80  or  less 
per  500  grams,  and  60  francs  per  100  kilos  ($1.07  per  100  pounds)  for  prunes 
counting  more  than  80  per  500  grams.     These  are  the  so-called  minimum  rates 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  29 


GENERAL  FRUIT  SITUATION 

Any  successful  campaign  to  increase  the  demand  for  prunes  must 
take  into  consideration  the  plentiful  and  low-priced  supplies  of  dried 
fruits  other  than  prunes  that  are  available  to  consumers.  The  ma- 
jority of  prune  eaters  are  apparently  persons  with  medium  and  small 
incomes.  They  are  more  price  sensitive  than  the  well-to-do  and  are 
inclined  to  watch  prices  and  to  eat  more  of  the  cheaper  kinds  of  fresh, 
canned,  and  dried  fruits  than  of  the  expensive  kinds.  When  there 
are  many  fruits  available  at  low  prices,  as  has  been  the  case  in  recent 
years  and  may  be  so  for  several  years,  competition  between  them  for 
a  larger  place  in  the  consumer's  diet  is  very  keen.  The  limited 
capacity  of  the  consumer's  stomach  means  that  if  he  eats  more  of  one 
fruit  he  will  probably  eat  correspondingly  less  of  others,  unless  he 
reduces  his  consumption  of  some  other  kinds  of  foods,  such  as  vegeta- 
bles, cereals,  or  meats. 

National  production  of  many  fruits,  several  of  which  compete 
with  prunes,  to  some  extent  at  least,  has  increased  rapidly  in  the  last 
decade,  making  it  difficult  to  market  many  fruits  at  satisfactory  prices 
in  years  when  weather  conditions  have  been  favorable  for  good  yields 
of  fruit  in  general.  Analysis  of  available  California  data  points  to 
the  conclusion  that  large  increases  in  the  total  fruit  production  of 
the  state  usually  result  in  low  prices  to  growers.28  The  California 
output  of  dried  fruits  has  more  than  doubled  since  the  pre-war  period, 
1910-1914  (see  table  4),  and  will  probably  continue  to  expand  until 
1930,  at  least.  During  the  same  period  the  national  canned-fruit 
pack,  including  Hawaiian  pineapples,  has  multiplied  by  three  and 
promises  to  grow  still  further.29   The  national  output  of  fruits  which 


which  apply  to  imports  from  the  United  States  as  well  as  to  imports  from 
Jugoslavia,  the  other  principal  source  of  French  imports.  The  general  tariff 
is  double  these  minimum  rates.  The  minimum  rates  represent  an  increase  over 
the  old  rate,  which  was  20.40  francs  per  100  kilos  ($0,364  per  100  pounds),  of 
about  400  per  cent  for  all  prunes  packed  in  cases  and  for  unpacked  prunes 
counting  80  or  less  per  500  grams,  and  of  about  300  per  cent  for  unpacked 
prunes  counting  more  than  80  per  500  grams.  (U.  S.  Bur.  Agr.  Econ.  Foreign 
News  on  Prunes.    F.  S.  P-51  (mimeo.).    April  12,  1928.) 

This  article  also  discusses  the  relation  of  the  new  duty  to  American  prune 
sizes  and  the  effect  of  new  rates  on  imports  of  American  prunes  at  Bordeaux. 

28  Shear,  S.  W.,  and  H.  F.  Gould.  Economic  status  of  the  grape  industry. 
California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  429:96.     1927. 

29  In  connection  with  a  discussion  of  the  canning-pear  situation  the  author 
presented  a  brief  statement  of  the  trend  of  canned-fruit  production  in  the 
United  States,  Hawaii,  Australia,  and  the  Union  of  South  Africa  in:  Shear, 
S.  W.  Economic  aspects  of  the  pear  industry.  California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui. 
452:84-87,  94-97.     1928. 


30 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


are  consumed  in  fresh  form,  such  as  oranges,  grapes,  peaches,  pears, 
and  cantaloupes,  has  likewise  grown  rapidly  since  pre-war  days. 
Apparently  there  will  be  no  abatement  for  several  years  in  the  keen 
competition  which  prunes  will  normally  meet  from  the  plentiful  and 
low-priced  fruit  which  will  probably  be  placed  upon  the  market.30 

TABLE  4 
California  Dried-Fruit  Production,  Average,  1910-1914  and  1923-1927 


Average, 
1910-1914 

Average, 
1923-1927 

Change  from 
to  1923 

1910-1914 
-1927 

Percentage 

change 

from 

Tons 

Per  cent 

Tons 

Per  cent 

Tons 

Per  cent 

1910-1914to 
1923-1927 

Raisins 

75,900 

68,300 

25,800 

15,450 

5,155 

3,300 

1,550 

38.9 
34.9 
13.2 
7.9 
2.6 
1.7 
0.8 

249,000 

153,600 

22,420 

21,560 

10,190 

8,400 

3,270 

53.1 
32.8 
4.8 
4  6 
2.2 
1.8 
0.7 

+  173,100 
+  85,300 
-    3,380 
+    6,110 
+    5,035 
+    5,100 
+     1,720 

+63.5 
+31.2 
-  1.2 
+  2.2 
+  1.8 
+  1.9 
+  0.6 

+228.1 

Prunes 

+125.0 

-  13.0 

+  39.2 

Figs 

+  97.8 

Apples 

+154.7 

+111  0 

Total 

195,455 

100.0 

483,440 

10D.0 

+  272,985 

100.0 

+139.2 

Sources  of  data: 

Data  for  1910-1914  for:  raisins:  Shear,  S.  W.,  and  H.  F.,  Gould.  Economic 
status  of  the  grape  industry.  California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  429:124.  1927. 
For  prunes:  table  2,  page  19.  For  pears:  Shear,  S.  W.  Economic  aspects  of 
the  pear  industry.     California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  452:102.     1928. 

Data  for  all  other  fruits,  1910-1914,  and  for  all  fruits,  1923-1927,  from: 
Kaufman,  E.  E.  California  crop  report  for  1927.  California  State  Dept.  Agr. 
Spec.  Pub.  86:35.     1928. 


CONSUMPTION  OF  DRIED   FRUITS 

Domestic  Consumption  of  Primes. — United  States  consumption  of 
dried  prunes  has  increased  since  the  decade  before  the  war  from  about 
1.0  pounds  per  capita  to  1.6  pounds  during  the  five  years  1921-1925 
(see  figure  8).  With  the  prospects  of  heavy  production  in  this  coun- 
try during  the  next  few  years  and  no  decrease  in  foreign  production 
and  exports,  our  domestic  consumption  of  prunes  will  continue  to  be 
large,  unless  something  very  unexpected  happens,  The  outlook  for 
large  average  crops  of  prunes  and  of  many  other  dried  fruits  and 
fresh  and  canned  fruits,  indicates  that  the  level  of  fruit  prices  pre- 
vailing during  the  next  few  years  is  likely  to  be  low. 

30  Those  who  wish  to  study  the  changes  which  have  taken  place  in  the 
supply,  price,  and  utilization  of  our  more  important  fruits  during  the  last  two 
decades  should  consult  the  economic  bulletins  which  have  been  issued  by  the 
College  of  Agriculture  at  Berkeley  during  the  past  three  years.  They  include 
studies  of  the  following  fruits:  peaches,  cantaloupes,  apricots,  grapes,  water- 
melons, pears,  oranges,  lemons,  grapefruit,  and  plums. 


Bul.462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE    SITUATION 


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32  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Present  consumption  is  the  same  as  the  average  of  the  years  1899- 
1903,  during  which  period  California  and  total  world  production  was 
larger  than  the  average  of  the  following  decade  and  exports  were 
taking  only  about  25  per  cent  of  our  production  out  of  the  domestic 
market  (see  table  5).  Prune  prices  for  several  years  after  1900  were, 
as  during  recent  years,  very  low  and  carryovers  frequent.  From  1902 
to  1910  the  trend  of  California  production  and  of  United  States 
consumption  was  downward  (see  figures  7,  page  25,  and  13,  page  48). 
Consumption  declined  more  rapidly  than  production,  however,  as  a 
result  of  the  expansion  of  our  export  trade  in  dried  prunes,  which 
was  stimulated  by  the  rapid  decline  in  production  and  exports  of 
European  commercial  prune-producing  areas.  Our  export  trade  dur- 
ing the  period  1909-1913  accounted  for  48  per  cent  of  our  national 
production,  a  larger  percentage  than  the  average  of  recent  years.  In 
spite  of  the  noticeable  pre-war  increase  in  our  production  which 
began  about  1909,  exports  were  heavy  enough  in  the  years  1909-1913 
to  reduce  our  per-capita  consumption  to  about  0.9  pound,  the  lowest 
five-year  average  for  thirty  years.  The  increased  volume  of  our 
exports,  however,  was  largely  due  to  the  increased  demand  for  our 
prunes  resulting  from  the  smallest  European  production  of  prunes 
during  the  period  1909-1913  of  any  five  years  in  the  last  three  de- 
cades (see  figure  5,  page  18).  There  is  little  likelihood  that  European 
production  will  average  much  lower  for  some  time  than  it  has  during 
the  last  four  or  five  years.  We  cannot,  therefore,  expect  any  great 
expansion  of  foreign  demand  for  our  prunes  on  the  average  during 
the  next  few  years  on  this  score  alone. 

Foreign  Consumption  of  Prunes. — Both  the  total  and  the  per- 
capita  consumption  of  dried  prunes  has  substantially  increased  in 
nearly  all  of  the  chief  prune-consuming  countries  since  pre-war  years. 
Comparison  of  averages  for  the  pre-war  years  1909-1913  and  for  the 
post-war  years  1921-1925  as  shown  in  table  6,  and  figure  8,  show 
these  increases  clearly  and  also  the  relative  importance  of  these  mar- 
kets. (See  also  table  3,  page  24.)  Germany  is  the  only  important 
prune-producing  country  whose  total  consumption  of  prunes  has  aver- 
aged lower  in  recent  years  than  before  the  war.  In  two  years  since 
the  war,  however,  German  dried-prune  imports  (net)  have  been 
larger  than  the  pre-war  average,  and  it  seems  probable  that  lower 
average  post-war  consumption  is  largely  due  to  temporary  reduction 
in  the  purchasing  power  of  the  Germans,  who,  in  the  past,  have  nor- 
mally been  one  of  the  best  markets  for  prunes. 


Bui*.  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE    SITUATION 


33 


TABLE  6 
Dried-Prune  Consumption  by  Chief  Countries,  Averages  1909-1913  and 

1921-1925 


Total  consumption 

Per  capita  consumption 

Countries 

1909-13 
average, 
thousands 
of  pounds 

1921-25 

average, 

thousands 

of  pounds 

Per  cent 
change 

1909-13 
average, 
pounds 

1921-25 
average, 
pounds 

Per  cent 
change 

United  States 

86,800 
70,290 
20,357 
28,347 

177,000 

63,000 

41,277 

38,478 

15,800 

14,325 

13,018 

10,035 

5,933 

5,778 

5,958 

4,973 

3,722 

1,384 

1,693 

+104 
-  10 
+103 
+  36 

0.9 
1.1 
0.5 
0.7 

1.6 
1.0 
0.9 
10 
0.6 
1.6 
1.8 
3.1 
10 
1.5 
2.3 
0.6 
11 
0.9 
1.9 

+  78 

-     5 

+  96 

+  43 

Poland  

10,386 
4,221 
5,039 
4,859 
3,821 
3,314 
4,780 
2,408 
900 
1,244 

+  38 
+203 
+  99 
+  22 
+  51 
+  80 
+    4 
+  55 
+  54 
+  36 

1.2 
0.7 
1.8 
0.9 
10 
1.4 
0.6 
0.8 
0.9 
1.7 

+  38 

+  157 

Denmark 

+  73 

+  18 

+  43 

+  66 

0 

+  41 

0 

+  15 

Source  of  data: 

Data  are  approximate  net  imports  by  calendar  years  compiled  from:  Wheeler, 
L.  A.  International  Trade  in  Dried  Fruit.  U.  S.  Dept.  Com.  Bur.  For.  and 
Dom.  Com.  Trade  Promotion  Series  44:52-55,  97-113;  1927;  with  the  exceptions 
noted   below. 

United  States  and  France. — Domestic  production  consumed  at  home  by  crop 
years  taken  into  consideration.  (See  table  2,  page  19,  and  5,  page  31.)  United 
States  export  and  production  data  are  for  crop  years,  while  those  for  France 
are  a  combination  of  calendar  year  exports  and  imports  and  production  by 
crop  years. 

Germany. — As  import  data  list  prunes  separately  but  export  data  include 
them  in  all  dried  fruits,  net  imports  are  estimates  based  on  the  assumption 
that  dried-fruit  exports  are  largely  prunes;  3  million  of  the  3,145,000  pounds 
of  dried-fruit  exports  were  subtracted  from  average  prune  imports,  calendar 
years  1909-1913,  and  7  million  out  of  an  average  of  about  7,300,000  pounds 
for  the  crop  years  1923-1927. 

Poland. — Imports  for  calendar  years  1924-1927. 

Norway. — The  only  available  import  data,  as  given,  include  dates  together 
with  prunes.  Dates,  however,  probably  constitute  a  very  small  part  of  the 
total  as  they  are  considered  a  luxury  in  Scandinavian  countries  and  are  not 
consumed  in  large  quantities.  Of  the  total  of  prune  and  date  imports  (which 
are  given  separately  for  Denmark  and  Sweden)  an  average  of  about  83  per  cent 
were  prunes  in  Denmark  and  about  97  per  cent  in  Sweden  during  both  the 
pre-war  and  the  post-war  periods  included  in  this  table. 

New  Zealand. — Data  for  1909-1913  are  estimates  based  upon  exports  from 
United  States  to   that   country. 


34 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


Figure  8  and  table  6  show  that  the  people  of  northwestern  Europe 
consume  more  prunes  per  capita  than  any  other  equally  large  and 
well-populated  area  in  the  world.  Many  of  these  countries  now  con- 
sume a  pound  or  more  of  dried  prunes  per  capita  annually  and 
nearly  all  of  them  have  shown  a  decided  increase  in  per-capita  con- 
sumption since  pre-war  days. 


/Isr  Cop/fa  f^rurye  Consumpt/or?  by   Ch/ef  Counfr/es 


G AZ A6 2  o 


ze 


Pe/?/7?arA-  - 

Norway 

Ar^e/?t/r?a •-  - 
A/et/?er/a/7as 
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Canaa'a 

3w/tzer/ar?c/ 
Germane/-  -  - 

P/a/ana* 

Sweater? 

France 

Uiftf  X/>7?do/?7 
Pe/g/urr?-  -  - 


Fig.  8. — The  people  of  northwestern  Europe  consume  more  dried  prunes 
per  capita  than  the  people  of  any  other  important  markets  except  the  United 
States  and  Canada.     (Data  from  table  6.) 

Argentina,  the  United  States,  Canada,  and  New  Zealand  are  the 
only  other  important  prune-consuming  countries  listed  whose  per- 
capita  consumption  is  as  large  as  that  of  most  of  these  European  coun- 
tries. The  population  of  two  of  these  countries — Argentina  and  New 
Zealand — is,  unfortunately,  too  small  to  make  them  markets  for  large 
quantities  of  prunes  at  the  present  time. 

Relative  Importance  of  Prunes. — About  25  per  cent  of  the  dried 
fruit  consumed  in  the  United  States  in  recent  years  has  been  prunes, 
nearly  50  per  cent  in  Denmark,  approximately  45  per  cent  in  Ger- 
many, about  20  per  cent  in  the  Netherlands,  Canada,  and  Belgium, 
and  only  11  per  cent  in  the  United  Kingdom.    Before  the  war  (1909- 


Bui*  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION 


35 


1913)  prunes  averaged  about  21  per  cent  of  the  dried  fruit  consumed 
in  the  United  States.  In  Canada,  and  in  all  important  European 
markets  but  the  United  Kingdom,  Belgium,  and  the  Netherlands, 
they  constituted  a  higher  percentage  than  the  present  one.  In  most 
of  the  other  important  European  markets,  such  as  Germany,  Denmark, 
Sweden,  Norway,  and  Switzerland,  prunes  constituted  approximately 
35  to  40  per  cent  of  the  total  of  all  dried  fruits  consumed  in  pre- 
war years. 

TABLE  7 
Dried  Fruits:  United  States  Production,  Foreign  Trade,,  and  Consumption, 

Average  1921-1925 


Production 

Exports 

Imports 

Consumpti 

on 

Kind  of  fruit 

Tons 

Per 
cent 

Tons 

Per 
cent 

Tons 

Per 
cent 

Tons 

Per 

cent 

Pounds 

per 
capita 

211,700 

48.4 

42,283 

31.0 

5,944 
13,010 

8.9 
19.4 

175,361 
13,010 
88,285 
29,124 
29,119 
19,712 
8,078 
4,348 

47.8 
3.5 

24.1 
7.9 
7.9 
5.4 
2.2 
1.2 

3.2 

Currants 

0.2 

152,150 

9,635 

500 

23,140 

18,300 

15,000* 

6,000f 

34.9 
2.2 
0.1 
5.3 
4  2 
3.5 
1.4 

63,865 

46.8 

1.6 

Figs 

19,489 
28,619 

29.1 
42.6 

0.5 

Dates 

0.5 

Peaches 

3,428 
10,222 
10,652 

6,000 

2.5 
7.5 

7.8 
4.4 

0.4 

0.1 

0.1 

Total 

436,425 

100.0 

135,450 

100.0 

67,052 

100.0 

367,037 

100.0 

6.7 

Estimated;  does  not  include  farm  production. 


t  Includes  3,000  short  tons  of  dried  pears. 


Source  of  data: 

Based  on:  Wheeler,  L.  A.     International  trade  in  dried  fruit.     TJ.  S.  Bur. 
For.  and  Dom.  Commerce,  Trade  Promotion  Series  44:2.     1927. 

Domestic  Consumption  of  Dried  Fruits. — Domestic  consumption 
of  dried  fruits  during  recent  years  has  averaged  6.7  pounds  per  capita 
compared  with  about  4.3  pounds  during  the  period  1910-1914,  an 
increase  of  over  50  per  cent.  Table  7  shows  that  prunes  have  consti- 
tuted nearly  35  per  cent  of  our  national  production  of  dried  fruits 
during  the  period  1921-1925  and  that  they  account  for  24  per  cent  of 
our  consumption  of  these  fruits.  Nearly  48  per  cent  of  our  consump- 
tion of  dried  fruits  has  consisted  of  raisins.  Imports  swell  our 
consumption  of  dried  fruits  other  than  prunes  and  raisins  to  such  an 
extent  that  we  consume  a  total  of  these  other  dried  fruits — chiefly  figs, 
dates,  and  peaches — amounting  to  about  23  per  cent  of  all  dried  fruits 
or  approximately  the  same  proportion  as  prunes.  During  the  years 
1910-1914,  however,  prunes  constituted  only  about  21  per  cent  of 
our  total  dried-fruit  consumption,  raisins  35  per  cent,  and  all  other 
dried  fruits  nearly  44  per  cent. 


36 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 


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BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  37 

Foreign  Consumption  of  Dried  Fruit.31  The  average  per-capita 
consumption  of  dried  fruits  in  the  United  States  of  6.7  pounds  during 
the  years  1921-1925  was  lower  than  that  of  the  Netherlands  (9.1),  of 
Canada  (8.1),  of  the  United  Kingdom  (7.3)  and  of  Switzerland  (11.0) 
and  slightly  higher  than  that  of  Denmark  (6.2).  It  was,  however, 
considerably  higher  than  the  per-capita  consumption  of  any  other 
important  dried-fruit  consuming  country  of  Europe  except  Germany. 
Germany  usually  consumes  between  6  and  7  pounds  annually,  about 
45  per  cent  of  which  are  prunes.  The  average  number  of  pounds 
of  dried  fruit  consumed  per  capita  in  other  important  European 
markets  during  the  period  1921-1925  was  as  follows:  Norway,  4.7; 
Belgium,  3.3 ;  Switzerland,  3.0 ;  Sweden,  2.8 ;  Finland,  2.6 ;  and 
France,  2.1. 

The  per-capita  consumption  of  dried  fruits  in  the  United  States 
of  about  4.3  pounds  before  the  war  was  lower  than  that  of  the  Nether- 
lands (8.6),  of  the  United  Kingdom  (6.6),  of  Canada  (6.3),  of  Den- 
mark (4.8),  and  also  of  New  Zealand  (11.5).  The  principal  importing 
countries  whose  consumption  fell  below  our  pre-war  average  are 
Belgium  (4.0),  Norway  (3.4),  Germany  (3.2),  Switzerland  (2.5), 
Sweden  (2.3),  Finland  (2.1),  and  France  (1.9). 


SIZE  AND  QUALITY  OF  CALIFORNIA  PRUNES 

Payments  based  on  Size32  and  Quality. — For  many  years  trading 
in  California  prunes  has  been  based  largely  upon  certain  size  desig- 
nations which  indicate  the  number  of  prunes  per  pound  in  the  pack 
in  question.  The  sizes  usually  range  from  20  to  30  prunes  to  the 
pound  (called  20/30 's)  to  120  prunes  and  more  to  the  pound.  There 
is  a  tendency  to  place  all  prunes  smaller  than  100  to  the  pound  in 
one  grade.  Processed  California  prunes  pack  out  on  a  standard  set 
by  the  Dried  Fruit  Association  of  California  of  between  8  and  9 
points  for  domestic  trade  and  between  9  and  10  points  for  export  to 
foreign  countries.  For  example,  prunes  sold  to  the  domestic  trade 
as  40/50 's  average  between  48  and  49  to  the  pound,  while  those  ex- 
ported as  40/50  's  average  between  49  and  50  to  the  pound  and  50/60  's 


31  These  and  other  data  regarding  the  consumption  of  the  chief  dried  fruits 
in  foreign  countries  may  be  found  in:  Wheeler,  L.  A.  International  trade  in 
dried  fruit.     U.  S.  Dept.  Com.  Trade  Promotion  Series  44:2  and  97-113.     1927. 

32  A  brief  discussion  of  the  method  of  paying  growers  for  prunes  on  an 
arbitrary  price  differential  and  its  relation  to  pooling  practices  is  given  in: 
Erdman,  H.  E.,  and  H.  R.  Wellman.  Some  economic  problems  involved  in  the 
pooling  of  fruit.     California  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  432:39-42.     1927. 


38 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


between  59  and  60. 33   Table  8  shows  the  ten  size  groups  for  which  the 
trade  usually  quotes  separate  prices, 

Critchfield  34  found  that  practically  none  of  the  housewives  inter- 
viewed in  his  study  were  familiar  with  the  size  groups  used  by  the 
trade  and  that  a  good  many  distributors  favor  the  adoption  of  only 
three  major  classes  of  prunes — large,  medium,  and  small — with  sub- 
classes of  'extra  large,'  *  extra  small,'  and  'below  grade.'  Some  large 
distributers   are   already   packaging   and   labeling   their   prunes   as 


Fbrcefttage  of  Co// for/7/0  /^rc/rte  Proc/c/cf/or? 
jbc/S/jres,  /S/2-/S27 


/9/2    /S      /4      /S     /6      /7     /&     /9     JO     2/     22     2S 


2S    £6     £7 


Fig.  9. — Since  1912  the  proportion  of  California  prunes  50/60  or  larger  has 
increased  noticeably  and  hence  the  proportion  of  smaller  prunes  has  declined. 
(Data  from  table  8.) 


'large,'  'medium,'  and  'small,'  and  are  finding  a  relatively  favorable 
response  from  trade  and  from  consumers.  Such  classifications  aid  in 
merchandising  because  they  are  readily  understood  and  used  by  con- 
sumers and  tend  to  reduce  the  opportunity  for  misrepresentation.35 


33  The  size  classification  generally  used  by  packers  in  buying  prunes  from 
the  grower,  which  differs  from  that  described  here,  is  given  on  page  42. 

34  The  remainder  of  this  paragraph  is  based  on:  Critchfield,  B.  H.  Demand, 
marketing,  and  production  of  Oregon  and  Washington  prunes.  U.  S.  Dept.  Agr. 
Dept.  Circ.  416:13.     1927. 

35  Some  members  of  the  dried-fruit  trade  proposed  the  use  of  only  four 
major  size  grades  for  California  prunes  as  early  as  1904.  See:  Market  review 
on  prunes.     California  Fruit  Grower,  Dec.  17,  1904.     p.  9. 


Bul.  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND    PRICE    SITUATION 


39 


Trend  and  Variations  in  Proportion  of  Sizes.36 — During  the  last 
two  decades  the  proportion  of  California  prunes  40/50  or  larger  in 
size  has  shown  a  notable  increase,  the  proportion  of  50/60  's  has 
tended  to  remain  about  the  same  (see  figure  10)  and  the  proportion 
of  60/70 's  or  smaller  has  tended  to  decline  (see  fig.  11).  The  per- 
centage of  the  state  crop  consisting  of  40/50  prunes  or  larger  has 
risen  from  an  average"  of  less  than  20  per  cent  in  pre-war  days  to 
about  40  per  cent  in  recent  years  (see  fig.  9  and  table  8).     On  the 


/fate  ofC/7o/7(7e//7  Co//for/7/<7  Prune  Proc/t/cf/on 
At/  S/jres,  s%&  &  /arper,  /3P-/927 


JO 


4o 

30 
20 

/O 

9 

e 

7 
S 


/S     /4      /S     /6      /7     /&      /9     20     2/      22    23    24    2S    26     Z7   2S     29  /930 


Fig.  10. — During  the  last  twenty  years  the  proportion  of  California  prunes 
40/50  or  larger  in  size  has  shown  a  notable  increase,  while  50/60  's  have  remained 
about  the  same.  Changes  from  one  year  to  the  next  in  the  percentage  of 
50/60's  have  been  relatively  slight,  but  in  the  case  of  40/50 's  and  larger, 
relatively  great.     (Data  from  table  8.) 


other  hand,  only  about  40  per  cent  of  the  crop  has  been  as  small  as 
60/70 's  during  the  last  five  years,  compared  with  an  average  of 
approximately  60  per  cent  during  the  period  1912-1916.  The  rela- 
tive increase  has  been  most  rapid  in  the  case  of  30/40 's  and  the 
relative  decline  greatest  in  the  case  of  80/90 's.  Figure  9  enables 
one  to  compare  the  approximate  rate  of  change  in  the  trend  of  the 
relative  output  of  different-sized  prunes  in  California  since  1912. 


36  The  influence  of  size  upon  the  price  of  prunes  is  discussed  briefly  on  page  58. 


40 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


Figures  10  and  11  show  how  much  more  the  proportion  of  some 
sizes  has  fluctuated  from  year  to  year  than  that  of  others.  The  per- 
centage of  the  state  crop  falling  in  the  50/60  and  in  the  60/70  group 
has  varied  relatively  less  from  year  to  year  than  for  any  other  size. 
The  greatest  fluctuations  have  occurred  in  the  case  of  larger  sizes. 
Since  1920  the  variation  in  the  proportion  of  50/60  's  has  ranged  only 
from  21  to  24  per  cent,  and  of  60/70  's  only  from  about  14  to  19  per 
cent  of  the  state  total.  The  relative  changes  in  the  proportion  of 
20/30  's,  30/40 's,  and  40/50  's,  however,  have  been  much  greater. 


/r&fe  ofC/?o/7<?e  /r?  Ca//for/?/c7  f^rc/ne  /^roc/ucf/on 
jbc/  J/z-es,  6%o'j  &  3X70/^/3/2-/927 


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20 


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zo 


/S/2    /J     /4    /S     /6     /7     /S     /S    20    2/    22   23    24   2S    26     27    23    23  /3SO 


Fig.  11. — The  proportion  of  California  prunes  60/70  or  smaller  has  been 
declining  since  1912.  Changes  from  one  year  to  the  next  in  the  percentage  of 
60/70 's  and  70/80 's  produced  are  usually  relatively  small  but  are  considerably 
greater  for  80/90 's  and  90/100  'a.     (Data  from  table  8.) 


Proportion  of  Sizes  in  Chief  Counties,  1925-1927. — The  increasing 
proportion  of  large  prunes  produced  in  the  state  is  to  a  considerable 
extent  due  to  the  fact  that  a  large  part  of  the  increase  in  California 
production  during  the  last  fifteen  or  twenty  years  has  taken  place  in 
those  coast  and  Sacramento  Valley  counties  which  produce  a  large 
percentage  of  prunes  40/50  or  larger.  Figure  12  shows  that  in  recent 
years  from  40  to  60  per  cent  of  the  prunes  produced  in  the  coast 
counties  and  in  Glenn,  Colusa,  Yuba,  Sutter,  and  Yolo  counties  in  the 
Sacramento  Valley  have  averaged  40/50  in  size  or  larger.  Of  the 
total  output  of  the  remaining  prune-producing  counties  in  the  Sacra- 
mento Valley  and  those  in  the  San  Joaquin  Valley  and  in  southern 
California  an  average  of  only  15  to  30  per  cent  have  been  as  large  as 
40/50  's  and  hence  conversely  from  70  to  85  per  cent  have  been  50/60  's 


Bul.462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND    PRICE    SITUATION 


41 


or  smaller.  Such  a  large  proportion  of  the  state  crop  comes  from 
counties  a  large  percentage  of  whose  crops  consists  of  40/50  or  larger 
prunes  that  these  sizes  have  constituted  approximately  40  per  cent 
of  the  total  prune  production  of  the  state  during  recent  years,  com- 
pared with  an  average  of  less  than  20  per  cent  from  1912  to  1916. 

The  coast  counties  of  the  state  are  the  only  ones  aside  from  Yuba, 
Sutter,  and  Yolo,  producing  any  appreciable  proportion  of  20/30 
prunes  and  the  percentage  is  less  than  5  per  cent  of  the  output  of 


5ize  Distribution  of  Prune  Production  by  Counties, 

PerCent  AVQrCiqQ    1925  -1927  Size 


Fig.  12. — The  eoast  counties  and  some  Sacramento  Valley  counties  produce  a  large 
percentage  of  medium  and  large-sized  prunes.    (Data  from  table  13,  page  67.) 


most  of  these  counties.  Prunes  of  the  30/40  size  constitute  from  10 
to  20  per  cent  of  the  output  from  these  same  counties  and  less  than 
about  5  per  cent  of  the  output  from  all  other  prune-producing  coun- 
ties in  the  state.  The  40/50 's  constitute  from  25  to  40  per  cent  of  the 
output  of  the  coast  counties  and  of  Glenn,  Colusa,  Yuba,  Sutter,  and 
Yolo  counties,  but  only  about  10  to  20  per  cent  of  the  output  in  the 
remaining  counties.  There  has  been  less  variation  in  the  average 
proportion  of  the  production  of  different  counties  consisting  of  50/60 
prunes  than  for  any  other  size  group  during  the  last  three  years,  the 
range  being  only  from  about  20  to  25  per  cent,37 


37  See  table  13,  page  67,  for  detailed  data  on  size  distribution  of  Cali- 
fornia prunes  by  counties  and  districts  for  the  individual  years,  as  well  as  for 
the  average  of  the  years  1925-1927. 


42  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Geographical  Differences  in  Quality. — Available  data  indicate  that 
the  interior  valleys  produce  only  a  very  small  percentage  of  prunes 
of  as  high  a  quality,  judged  by  present  trade  standards,  as  the  ma- 
jority of  prunes  produced  in  the  coastal  valley  districts  of  the  state. 
As  a  result  of  extremely  careful  cultural,  harvesting,  and  drying 
practices,  however,  some  growers  in  the  valley  do  produce  prunes  of 
a  high  quality.  The  results  of  these  few  growers  show  the  possibility 
of  other  growers  in  the  interior  improving  the  quality  as  well  as  the 
size  of  their  fruit  by  proper  practices.38 

Methods  of  Grading  Prunes  by  Size. — Growers  are  usually  paid 
for  their  dried-prune  crop  on  the  basis  of  the  average  number  of 
prunes  in  a  pound  of  any  designated  lot,  Two  methods  of  determining 
the  average  size  of  any  given  delivery  are  used  in  California,39  At 
least  95  per  cent  of  Santa  Clara  prunes  are  bought  on  the  packers' 
grade  sheets  after  being  run  through  the  grader  at  the  plant  where 
delivered.  In  the  other  prune-growing  districts  of  the  state,  however, 
the  door  or  sack  test  is  the  prevailing  method  of  determining  the  size 
upon  which  a  grower's  payments  are  based. 

Each  grower's  lot  of  prunes  is  size-graded40  in  most  packing 
houses  immediately  after  delivery  and  the  weights  of  the  lots  falling 
into  each  of  the  different  size  grades  and  the  average  number  of 
prunes  per  pound  in  each  are  determined  and  recorded  on  grade 
sheets.  This  system  of  grading  constitutes  the  basis  upon  which  all 
the  members  of  the  California  Prune  and  Apricot  Growers  Associa- 
tion are  paid  and  its  use  by  this  cooperative  marketing  organization 
has  probably  been  to  a  considerable  extent  responsible  for  the  ten- 
dency for  many  growers  to  sell  to  independent  commercial  packers 
on  the  same  basis  wherever  growers  are  convinced  that  conditions 
favor  such  a  method. 

This  method  of  determining  the  grade  as  the  basis  of  selling  prunes 
seems  desirable  wherever  there  are  local  grading  plants  to  which 
growers  deliver  their  prunes  themselves  and  where  grower-packer 
relations  are  satisfactory.  The  modern  size  graders  in  general  use 
throughout  the  state  permit  of  no  manipulation.  Growers  who  de- 
liver to  local  grading  plants  can  see  their  prunes  run  through  the 
grader  and  the  weight  of  the  different  lots  recorded  by  sizes. 

38  See:  Tesche,  W.  C.  Prune  grade  and  quality  problems.  Pacific  Rural 
Press  115:781,  788.     1928, 

39  Based  on  information  supplied  by  Mr.  C.  F.  Wells,  Market  Analyst,  Division 
of  Markets,  California  Department  of  Agriculture,  and  by  the  California  Prune 
and  Apricot  Growers  Association. 

40  For  a  brief  description  of  this  method  of  grading  prunes  by  sizes  see: 
Cruess,  W.  V.  Commercial  fruit  and  vegetable  products,  pp.  422-424.  McGraw- 
Hill  Book  Co.,  New  York.    1924. 


BlJL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  43 

Outside  of  the  prune-producing  section  south  of  San  Francisco 
Bay,  the  door  or  sack  test 41  is  the  usual  method  employed  by  packers 
when  buying-  from  growers.  Samples  are  usually  taken  from  every 
fifth  sack  and  the  number  of  prunes  per  pound  in  the  combined  sam- 
ple is  assumed  as  representative  of  each  load.  As  a  mistake  of  one 
prune  a  pound  in  the  representative  sample  may  mean  a  difference  of 
a  dollar  or  more  a  ton,  both  growers  and  packers  should  see  that  sack 
tests  are  based  upon  a  truly  representative  sample. 

When  the  grader  test  is  used,  the  size  classes  are  for  the  most  part 
in  ten-point  size  classes.  These  classes,  however,  do  not  start  on  mul- 
tiples of  ten.  They  are  standardized  for  both  the  grader  and  the 
sack  test  by  the  Dried  Fruit  Association  of  California  and  may  be 
seen  on  standard  grower  contracts.  The  usual  range  within  grader 
size-classes  is  as  follows  :  to  24  ;  25-30  ;  31-33  ;  34-40 ;  41-51 ;  52-61 ; 
62-71;  72-81;  82-91;  92-101;  102-121;  122-up.  Sack  tests  are  in 
three  or  four-point  size-classes  as  follows  :  to  24 ;  25-29  ;  30-33  ;  34^0 ; 
41_43 .  44-50;  51-54;  55-57;  58-60;  61-65;  66-70;  71-75;  76-81; 
82-91 ;  92-101 ;  102-121 ;  122-up.42 

Old  put  of  Inferior  Prunes  Should  Be  Reduced. — In  view  of  the 
great  increase  in  California  prune  production,  the  low  prices  which 
have  prevailed  during  the  last  few  years,  and  the  probability  of  larger 
average  crops  during  the  next  few  years,  all  factors  in  the  prune 
industry  should  exert  themselves  to  eliminate  the  production  and  mar- 
keting of  small-sized  and  inferior  prunes  for  table  use.  The  grower 
and  every  factor  between  him  and  the  consumer  should  study  and 
learn  just  what  size  and  quality  of  prunes  different  classes  of  con- 
sumers prefer.  The  differences  in  prices  for  different  grades  which 
growers  receive  and  those  at  which  prunes  move  in  the  trade  should 
be  made  to  reflect  with  as  close  a  degree  of  accuracy  as  feasible  the 
price  differentials  which  consumers  themselves  place  upon  the  differ- 
ent sizes  and  qualities  of  prunes.  Proper  premiums  should  be  placed 
on  high  grade  and  drastic  penalties  against  low  ones.  Consumers 
themselves  should  be  better  educated  to  appreciate  the  real  differences 
which  make  some  grades  of  prunes  a  tastier  and  more  economical 
food  than  others. 


41  See:  Committee  appointed  by  California  State  Department  of  Agriculture. 
Eeport  on  handling  of  California  prunes.  California  Fruit  News,  Dec.  31,  1921. 
p.  43.  This  report  describes  very  briefly  all  of  the  more  important  operations 
involved  in  handling  prunes  from  harvesting  and  drying  to  packing  and 
shipping. 

42  See  page  37  for  a  brief  discussion  of  the  size  grades  for  packed  and  pro- 
cessed prunes  as  sold  to  the  trade. 


44  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Growers  should  use  every  means  economically  feasible  not  to  pro- 
duce prunes  inferior  in  quality  or  very  small,  such  as  90 's  or 
smaller.43  If  such  prunes  continue  to  be  produced  the  industry  should 
support  a  movement  to  see  that  they  are  retained  by  the  grower  or 
else  used  in  making"  by-products  which  do  not  compete  with  dried 
prunes  for  table  use.44  Had  all  prunes  smaller  than  90  's  been  kept  off 
the  market  during  the  last  three  years  the  market  supply  would  have 
been  reduced  by  approximately  10  per  cent.  The  supply  would  have 
been  reduced  still  further  had  prunes  of  very  inferior  quality  of  larger 
sizes  been  withheld  from  the  market. 

The  relative  decline  in  the  proportion  of  small-sized  prunes  pro- 
duced in  California  is  a  healthy  tendency,  and  it  is  fortunate  that  the 
industry  has  expanded  so  slowly  in  some  of  the  counties  which  pro- 
duce the  largest  proportion  of  small  prunes,  Growers  who  are 
producing  prunes  in  localities  which  are  not  adapted  to  the  economical 
production  of  prunes  of  good  quality  and  of  medium  size  or  larger 
should  turn  to  other  enterprises  in  which  there  are  reasonable  pros- 
pects of  securing  an  income  large  enough  to  support  themselves.  By 
doing  so  they  will  benefit  themselves  as  individuals  and  incidentally 
the  whole  prune  industry. 

CHIEF    USES    FOR    PRUNES45 

Europeans  eat  many  fresh  prunes  and,  in  Jugoslavia  and  Rou- 
mania  particularly,  they  likewise  utilize  them  on  an  extensive  scale 
for  two  products,  brandy  (slivovitz)  and  jam  (Pekmez,  Pnaumenmus 
or  Zwetchgenmus).  Patton  46  estimates  that  normally  about  40  per 
cent  of  the  fresh  prune  crop  of  Jugoslavia  is  made  into  brandy  and 
about  20  per  cent  into  jam.    Much  of  the  prune  crop  of  Roumania  and 


43  A  brief  discussion  of  cultural  and  related  methods  by  which  the  size  of 
prunes  may  be  increased  is  contained  in  an  anonymous  article,  Profits  from 
prunes.  Sunsweet  Standard  9(11)  :8-9.  April,  1926.  The  conclusions  reached 
in  this  article  are  that  of  the  partially  controllable  factors  influencing  the  size 
of  prunes  those  warranting'  consideration  are  variety,  number  of  trees  to  the 
acre,  pruning,  moisture,  and  fertility. 

44  See  statement  by  Shaw,  Earle  J.  Standardization  of  dried  prunes,  in 
American  Cooperation:  a  collection  of  papers  and  discussions  comprising  the 
fourth  summer  session  of  the  American  Institute  of  Cooperation  at  the  Univer- 
sity of  California,  Berkeley,  July  16-28,  to  be  published  by  the  American 
Institute  of  Cooperation,  Washington,  D.  C. 

45  This  section  is  based  largely  upon  information  derived  from  the  labora- 
tory and  factory  experience  of  the  Fruit  Products  Laboratory  of  the  University 
of  California.  See  also:  Mrak,  Emil.  New  uses  for  prunes.  California  Fruit 
News,  Feb.  25,  1928,  p.  4. 

46  See:  Wheeler,  L.  A.  International  trade  in  dried  fruit.  U.  S.  Dept.  of 
Commerce,  Bur.  For.  and  Dom.  Com.  trade  promotion  series  44:44.     1927. 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  45 

of  several  other  European  countries  that  grow  large  quantities  of 
plums  adapted  to  drying  for  prunes  is  also  made  into  these  last  two 
products.  Neither  of  them,  however,  is  made  or  used  in  this  country 
and  it  is  improbable  that  a  satisfactory  domestic  market  for  either  of 
them  could  be  developed.  In  foreign  countries,  moreover,  prune  jam 
ordinarily  sells  at  a  price  for  which  California  growers  would  not  be 
willing  to  produce  prunes. 

In  California  prunes  are  grown  primarily  for  drying  only  and 
nearly  all  of  them  reach  the  consumer  in  this  form.  Very  few  are 
canned  commercially  or  consumed  in  fresh  form.  The  varieties  grown 
in  the  state  are  almost  all  very  sweet  in  flavor  and  hence  are  not  as 
popular  in  the  fresh  and  canned  form  as  the  tart-sweet  Italian  prune 
(intermediate  in  taste  between  the  sweet  California  prune  and  sour 
plums)  grown  so  largely  in  the  Pacific  Northwest,  of  which  a  consid- 
erable tonnage  is  canned  commercially  or  shipped  to  consuming  mar- 
kets in  the  fresh  state. 

Outlook  for  Canning  California  Prunes. — Up  to  the  present  no 
reasonably  satisfactory  method  of  packing  California  dried  prunes  in 
syrup  in  cans  smaller  than  number  10  tins  has  been  devised.  A  few 
years  ago  a  considerable  tonnage  of  dried  prunes  was  packed  in  small 
cans  for  the  retail  trade,  but  so  many  cases  were  returned  by  eastern 
buyers  because  of  hydrogen  swells  and  perforated  cans  resulting  from 
corrosion  of  tin  plate  that  the  enterprise  proved  unprofitable  to  the 
canners  and  the  trade  became  discouraged  with  the  line.  The  Fruit 
Products  Laboratory  of  the  University  of  California  believes  that 
methods  of  canning  dried  prunes  in  syrup  in  small  cans  can  be  devised 
and  is  working  on  the  problem.  It  is  probable,  however,  that  several 
years  will  be  required  to  perfect  such  methods  and  to  convince  can- 
ners and  the  wholesale  trade  that  the  danger  of  unprofitable  spoilage 
of  the  product  has  been  eliminated.  Unfortunately,  therefore,  Cali- 
fornia dried  prunes  canned  in  syrup  apparently  will  not  offer  an 
outlet  for  the  disposal  of  any  large  quantity  of  prunes  during  the  next 
few  years  when  stimulation  of  consumption  will  be  especially  needed 
to  help  dispose  of  the  very  large  normal  crops  in  prospect. 

Once  the  proper  technique  is  worked  out,  however,  a  substantial 
tonnage  of  prunes  will  probably  be  packed  and  consumed  in  this  form 
and  the  demand  for  prunes  may  be  increased  appreciably.  Many 
persons  who  like  prunes  probably  do  not  eat  them  as  frequently  as 
they  would  if  they  were  spared  the  inconvenience  of  soaking  and 
cooking  them.  The  handiness  of  ready-to-serve  canned  prunes,  to- 
gether with  the  fact  that  they  would  be  tastily   prepared,   should 


46  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

stimulate  consumption  on  the  part  not  only  of  those  who  already  eat 
stewed  prunes  but  of  many  who  do  not  eat  them  at  all  at  present. 
Such  a  handy,  tasty  form  should  increase  the  demand  for  stewed 
prunes  in  restaurants.  The  canning  of  prunes  in  syrup,  once  it  can 
be  safely  done,  should,  like  the  packing  of  a  number  of  prune  products 
which  the  Fruit  Products  Laboratory  of  the  University  of  California 
is  developing,  appeal  to  commercial  canneries  because  of  the  simplicity 
of  the  process,  the  low  costs  involved,  and  the  convenience  of  an  'off- 
season' canning  product. 

New  Uses. — The  decline  in  prune  prices  resulting  from  the  tremen- 
dous increase  in  production  since  the  war  has  resulted  in  an  effort  to 
stimulate  demand  through  the  development  of. improved  uses  for  the 
better  grades  of  prunes  and  by  devising  by-products  to  utilize  small 
and  inferior  prunes  in  such  a  way  as  to  be  appetizing  and  yet,  in  so 
far  as  possible,  not  directly  competitive  with  table  consumption  of 
prunes  as  such.  No  by-products  have  as  yet  been  devised  that  will 
remove  inferior  grades  of  prunes  entirely  out  of  competition  with 
fruits  or  edible  fruit  products. 

The  Fruit  Products  Laboratory  of  the  University  of  California 
has,  however,  developed  some  new  and  attractive  methods  of  serving 
table  prunes,  and  has  devised  some  appetizing  by-product  uses  for 
small-sized  prunes.  The  processes  involved  in  the  commercial  prepa- 
ration of  some  of  these  products  are  relatively  simple  and  cheap. 
Moreover  such  products  offer  canneries  something  to  put  up  during 
the  'off  season'  when  their  plants  would  otherwise  be  idle.  Since 
prunes  are  known  as  a  healthful  food  there  would  seem  to  be  promise 
of  economically  increasing  the  demand  for  them  in  the  course  of  time 
if  the  new  products  can  be  produced  at  a  low  cost.  The  possibility 
of  developing  an  extensive  market  for  these  products,  however,  in 
time  to  help  much  in  relieving  the  industry  of  the  present  burden  of 
low  prices  caused  by  over-production,  seems  remote.  Market  expan- 
sion for  such  of  these  products  as  have  a  permanent  appeal  to  con- 
sumers and  that  can  be  produced  at  a  low  cost  will  probably  be  slow, 
judging  from  much  of  the  experience  in  similar  fields  of  endeavor. 
Demand  will  have  to  be  created,  distribution  agencies  educated,  and 
competition  from  a  host  of  other  appetizing  fruit  products  success- 
fully overcome. 

The  two  new  products  developed  by  the  Fruit  Products  Labora- 
tory of  the  University  of  California  which  seem  to  offer  the  most 
promise  from  the  economic  point  of  view  are  prune  pulp  and  prunes 
canned  in  wine.    The  latter,  although  a  very  appetizing  product,  does 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY    AND    PRICE   SITUATION  47 

not  utilize  inferior  fruit  and  is  a  food  product  which  competes 
directly  with  many  kinds  of  dessert  fruits,  including  prunes,  for  a 
place  in  the  consumer's  diet.  Prune  pulp  probably  competes  less  di- 
rectly with  most  canned,  dried,  or  fresh  fruits  for  a  place  in  the 
consumers 's  diet,  and  it  offers  a  method  of  utilizing-  small-sized  fruit. 
It  is  the  water-soaked  pulp  or  flesh  of  the  prunes,  free  from  pits  and 
having  a  smooth  texture  and  consistency  like  that  of  fruit  butter, 
but  containing  no  sugar.  Preparation  of  the  fruit  is  a  relatively 
simple  process  calling  for  but  little  equipment  and  labor.  It  is  well 
adapted  for  use  in  a  number  of  food  products,  chief  of  which  are 
pie,  ice  cream,  .and  milk  shake.  None  of  these  uses  for  prune  pulp 
competes  directly  with  prunes  as  usually  prepared  and  served  as 
fruit  in  the  home.  In  ice  cream  and  milk  shake  the  pulp  has  proved 
popular  wherever  they  have  been  introduced  to  patrons  of  soda- 
fountains  and  restaurants.  However,  it  still  remains  to  be  seen  how 
extensively  and  profitably  these  products  will  be  manufactured  and 
distributed  at  prices  that  will  give  the  grower  a  satisfactory  return 
on  the  small-sized  fruit  utilized. 


PRICES   OF    CALIFORNIA    PRUNES 

For  at  least  twenty  years  previous  to  1905  the  prune  production 
of  the  world,  and  of  California  in  particular,  increased  rapidly,  caus- 
ing California  growers'  returns  per  ton  to  decline  rather  steadily. 
Even  before  prices  reached  their  lowest  point,  however,  they  discour- 
aged the  planting  of  prunes  in  all  the  important  prune-producing 
sections  of  the  world,  for,  about  1905,  the  trend  of  production  began 
to  drop.  It  was  not  until  after  returns  had  been  improving  for  several 
years,  nearly  1910,  that  it  started  upward  again  in  California,  Since 
about  1910  the  trend  of  production  (for  the  world  as  well  as  Cali- 
fornia) has  been  rapidly  upward,  while  the  trend  of  adjusted  prices 
has  been  downward  most  of  the  time  since  pre-war  days  and  most 
rapidly  since  the  war  (see  figure  13). 

The  fluctuations  in  actual  prices  shown  in  figure  13  represent 
price  changes  that  have  been  due  to  two  sets  of  causes :  one,  the  chang- 
ing value  or  purchasing  power  of  the  dollar;  the  other,  changes  in 
the  relation  of  the  supply  of,  and  the  demand  for,  California  prunes. 
Due  to  the  general  increase  in  the  average  level  of  all  prices  it  has 
not  been  possible  in  any  year  since  1914  for  Americans  to  purchase 
as  many  units  of  goods  in  general  for  a  dollar  as  they  could  during 
the  period  1898-1914  (with  the  exception  of  1910).     As  a  result  of 


48 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


this  decline  in  the  value  of  money,  which  reached  its  lowest  level  in 
1920,  as  least  two  dollars  were  necessary  in  1918,  1919,  and  1920  to 
buy  goods  in  general  at  wholesale  which  could  have  been  bought  for 
only  about  one  dollar  on  an  average  during  the  years  1910-1914. 
This  being  the  case,  the  dollars  which  prune  growers  received  in  these 
years  were  worth  in  general  purchasing  power  less  than  half  as  much 
as  those  which  they  received  and  spent  before  1914.  During  the  last 
few  years  a  dollar  has  purchased  about  two-thirds  of  what  it  would 
before  the  war.  The  curve  of  adjusted  prices  in  figure  13  depicts 
changes  resulting  primarily  from  changes  in  the  supply  of,  or  the 
demand  for,  California  prunes  or  from  coincident  changes  in  both. 
The  effects  of  changes  in  the  value  of  the  dollar  have  been  practically 
eliminated. 


/^y/ce  of  Co//for/7/af   Z^c/ne^s  o/?c/  {Sf7/fed  States 
/Isr-Cap/to   Con<5u/77pf/on  ,   /S93  —  J927. 


Fig.  13. — The  trend  of  prune  prices  in  terms  of  purchasing  power  has  been 
downward  since  1910.  Domestic  consumption  of  prunes  is  usually  curtailed 
by  high  prices  and  increased  by  low  prices.  (Data  on  prices  from  table  10, 
page  50',  and  on  consumption  from  table  5,  page  31,  with  allowance  for  rough 
estimates  of  carryover,  which  are  not  shown  in  this  table.) 


A  comparison  of  the  curve  of  the  actual  average  annual  price  of 
prunes  per  pound  in  figure  13  and  the  curve  of  adjusted  prices  (pur- 
chasing power  or  value)  per  pound  in  terms  of  dollars  of  average 
value  or  purchasing  power  during  the  calendar  year  1926,  makes  it 
easy  to  understand  why  many  persons  were  deceived,  partially  at 
least,  by  the  high  prices  of  prunes  during  and  right  after  the  war. 
Many  growers  failed  to  consider  carefully  how  much  less  they  could 
buy  with  the  dollars  they  received  for  prunes  than  they  could  before 
the  war,  and  many  assumed  that  prices  in  general  would  continue  to 


Bui*  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND    PRICE    SITUATION 


49 


remain  on  the  high  level  of  the  war  years.  Actual  prune  prices  are 
still  no  lower  than  they  were  before  the  war,  but,  when  they  are  cor- 
rected for  the  general  increase  in  the  prices  of  all  commodities,  figure 
13  shows  that,  in  terms  of  what  a  pound  of  prunes  would  purchase, 
prunes  have  been  below  the  pre-war  level  for  several  years,  and  that 
the  trend  is  downward. 


TABLE  9 
Farm  Price  of  California  Prunes  Per  Ton  and  Per  Bearing  Acre,  1919-1927 


Price  per  ton 

Price  per  ton  in  terms 
of  1926  dollars 

Gross  income  per 
bearing  acre 

All-com- 

Year 

Dollars 

Per  cent 
of  1920-24 
average 

Dollars 

Per  cent 
of  1920-24 
average 

Price 

dollars 

In  terms  of  1926  dollars 

modity 
wholesale- 
price 

Dollars 

Per  cent 
of  1920-24 
average 

index 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

1918 

161 

132 

123 

101 

70 

53 

43 

131 

1919 

240 

197 

160 

131 

31? 

208 

171 

150 

1920 

130 

106 

124 

102 

120 

114 

94 

105 

1921 

130 

106 

138 

113 

122 

130 

107 

94 

1922 

140 

115 

139 

114 

138 

137 

112 

101 

1923 

100 

82 

103 

84 

109 

113 

93 

97 

1924 

110 

90 

107 

88 

119 

115 

94 

103 

1925 

110 

90 

110 

90 

116 

116 

95 

100 

1926 

100 

82 

105 

86 

96 

101 

83 

95 

1927* 

70 

57 

72 

59 

81 

83 

68 

97 

1928 

1929 

*  Data  for  1927  are  preliminary  and  subject  to  revision 


Sources  of  data: 

Col.  1. — Farm  value  per  ton  are  estimates  of  the  California  Crop  Reporting 
Service  compiled  from  its  annual  reports. 

Cols.  3  and  6. — Items  in  cols.  1  and  5  respectively  divided  by  wholesale- 
price  index  in  col.   8  for  corresponding  year. 

Col.  5. — California  Crop  Reporting  Service's  estimates  of  growers'  farm 
income  from  California  prunes  divided  by  its  estimates  of  bearing  acreage  for 
corresponding  years.  Estimates  of  farm  price  from  col.  1;  production  and 
bearing  acreage  from  table  1,  page  14. 

Col.  8. — U.  S.  Bureau  Labor  Statistics  all-commodity  wholesale-price  index 
for  the  United  States  for  crop  years  beginning  October  1  converted  on  a  1926 
calendar  year  base  of  100.     The  1927  index  is  for  10  months  only. 

Data  in  table  9  show  that  the  trend  of  gross  returns  to  prune 
growers  of  the  state  per  bearing  acre  as  well  as  per  ton  have  been 
downward  since  the  war.  The  fact  that  the  normal  yield  of  prunes 
per  bearing  acre  has  been  fairly  constant  in  recent  years  accounts  for 
the  trend  of  returns  per  acre  being  just  about  the  same  as  that  per 
ton.    The  decline  in  the  price  of  prunes  in  recent  years  has  been  due 


50 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE  10 
California  Prune  Production  and  Prices,  1886-1928 


Production 

Price 

in  cents 

per  pound 

Adjusted  price  in  terms 
of  1926  dollars 

Crop  year 

Millions 
of  pounds 

Per  cent  of 
1910-14 
average 

Cents 

per 
pound 

Per  cent  of 
1910-14 
average 

Price 
index 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

1886 

4 
8 
8 

17 

16 

28 

23 

52 

45 

65 

55 

98 

90 

114 

174 

82 

195 

165 

135 

63 

180 

105 

57 

150 

80 

190 

205 

96 

112 

185 

157 

218 

90 

270 

195 

200 

220 

260 

278 

292 

300 

406 

370* 

3 

6 

6 

12 

12 

20 

17 

28 

33 

47 

40 

72 

66 

83 

127 

60 

142 

120 

99 

46 

131 

77 

42 

10.1 

58 

139 

150 

70 

82 

135 

115 

159 

66 

197 

142 

146 

161 

190 

203 

213 

219 

296 

1887.  . 

1888 

1889.  . 

1890 

11.5 
8.8 

11.5 
7.4 
6.9 
5.9 
5  5 
5  4 
5.8 
5  3 
5  2 
5.6 

5  0 
4.7 
4.1 
6.0 
5.6 

6  1 
5  5 
6.6 
8.2 
8.6 
6.2 
9.4 
8.2 
7.1 

10  0 

11  1 
20.0 
16.2 

9.8 
113 
9.2 
6.7 
7.5 
8.0 
7.0 
6.1 

22.1 

17.7 

23.0 

15.8 

15.5 

13  6 

12.8 

12  4 

12.2 

10.0 

10.2 

10.5 

8.8 

8.5 

7.3 

10  5 

9.2 

10 .3 

8.9 

99 

13.5 

13.6 

9.5 

14.6 

12.7 

9.4 

9.2 

9.1 

15.2 

10.7 

9.4 

11.9 

9.2 

6.9 

7.4 

8.0 

7.4 

6.3 

173 
139 
180 
124 
121 
105 
103 
97 
95 
78 
80 
82 
63 
65 
57 
82 
72 
81 
70 
77 
105 
107 
74 
114 
99 
74 
72 
71 
119 
84 
74 
93 
72 
54 
58 
63 
58 
49 

52 

1891 

50 

1892 

50 

1893 

46 

1894 

45 

1895 

43 

1896 

43 

1897 

43 

1898 

47 

1899 

53 

1900  . 

51 

1901 

54 

1902 

57 

1903 

56 

1904.  . . 

56 

1905 

57 

1906 

61 

1907 

59 

1908 

1909 

62 
66 

1910 

61 

1911 

63 

1912 

65 

1913 

64 

1914 

64 

1915  . 

76 

1916 

108 

1917... 

123 

1918 

131 

1919 

150 

1920... 

105 

1921 

94 

1922 

101 

1923. ... 

97 

1924 

103 

1925 

100 

1926.. 

95 

1927 

1928 

*  Data  for  1928  are  preliminary  (October  estimates)  and  subject  to  revision. 
Sources  of  data: 

Col.   2. — Compiled  from  the  California  Fruit   News    (called  the   California 
Fruit  Grower  before  1913)  and  annual  California  Crop  Keports. 

Col.   4. — Wholesale   price   quotations   to   jobbers   for   60/70    size    California 
prunes    in    25-pound    boxes    in    New    York    City.      Simple    annual   average    of 


Buii.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  51 

monthly  quotations  of  the  two  highest  grades  (frequently  designated  as  'Santa 
Claras'  and  'outside')  for  crop  years  beginning  October,  except  for  the  years 
1904-1906,  1910,  and  1912.  To  avoid  undue  influence  of  the  prices  for  a  few 
months  near  the  close  of  each  of  these  crop  years  an  average  price  for  the 
months  of  October-June  inclusive  was  used  for  the  crop  year  1904,  of  October- 
May  for  1905  and  1906,  and  of  September-January  for  1910  in  which  crop  year 
approximately  95  per  cent  of  the  California  crop  had  moved  from  the  state 
by  February.  Monthly  data  compiled  from  the  Wholesale  Price  Bulletins  of 
the  IT.  S.  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics,  which  Bureau  compiled  the  data  from 
the  New  York  Journal  of  Commerce  and  Commercial  Bulletin  taking  a  monthly 
average  of  the  weekly  quotations  (average  of  the  range  of  price  on  Tuesday) 
in  recent  years.  Previous  to  the  war  the  monthly  price  was  the  average  of 
the  range  of  quotations  on  the  first  of  each  month. 

Col.  5. — Items  in  col.  4  divided  by  the  index  number  for  the  corresponding 
year  in  col.  7  for  reasons  explained  on  page  47. 

Col.  7. — U.  S.  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  all-commodity  wholesale-price  index 
for  the  United  States  for  crop  years  beginning  October  converted  to  a  1926 
calendar  year  base  of  100  by  dividing  the  index  on  a  1910-1914  base  by  1.566. 

largely  to  increasing  production  from  prune  trees  planted  in  the  state 
under  the  stimulus  of  the  temporarily  high,  and  hence  misleading, 
prices  which  prevailed  for  several  years  as  an  indirect  result  of 
the  war. 

Inverse  Relation  of  Consumption  and  Price. — The  tendency,  par- 
ticularly in  the  years  before  the  war,  for  the  per-capita  consumption 
of  prunes  in  the  United  States  to  be  curtailed  when  prices  were  high 
or  to  increase  when  prices  fell  is  shown  by  a  study  of  figure  13.47 
More  frequently  than  not  an  increase  in  per-capita  consumption  from 
one  year  to  the  next  has  been  accompanied  by  a  decrease  in  the 
price  (in  terms  of  1926  dollars),  made  necessary,  apparently,  to 
induce  consumers  to  eat  more  prunes.  Conversely,  a  decline  in  con- 
sumption has  usually  been  attended  by  an  increase  in  price.  Appar- 
ently, the  more  prunes  we  can  move  into  foreign  markets  at  fair 
prices,  thereby  holding  down  per-capita  consumption  in  this  country, 
the  better  the  returns  which  California  prune  growers  can  get  for 
their  crop. 

World  Supply  the  Chief  Factor  Affecting  Prices. — Figure  14  indi- 
cates that  the  world  supply  of  prunes  is  the  most  important  factor 
determining  the  wholesale  price  of  California  prunes  and  should  be 
the  chief  factor  determining  growers'  prices.  Each  black  dot  indi- 
cates the  relation  between  the  wholesale  price  and  the  approximate 
tonnage  of  prunes  moved  into  consumption  in  the  crop  year  indicated 
by  the  number  beside  the  dot.  Each  dot  is  placed  far  enough  to  the 
right  to  correspond  to  world  consumption  for  a  given  year  and  high 


47  Kough  adjustments  for  carryover  have  been  made  in  the  per-capita  con- 
sumption data  pictured  in  figure  13  and  hence  they  are  not  identical  with  the 
corresponding  data  presented  in  table  5. 


52 


UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 


enough  to  correspond  to  the  average  wholesale  price  of  California 
prunes  during  the  same  crop  year.  To  illustrate,  the  world  con- 
sumed about  150,000  tons  of  prunes  in  1912  and  the  wholesale  price 
of  California  prunes  during  the  crop  year  averaged  about  9.5  cents 
a  pound  (adjusted).  The  black  dot  marked  12  (1912)  was  located  as 
indicated  by  the  light  dash  lines  S-12  and  P-12.  The  other  dots 
are  located  in  the  same  way. 


/?e/af/o/?  of  IsVor/c/  P!ru/7e  Cortsc/z^pf/of?  a/yc/  Acf/l/stec/ 
/Vew   VorA  W/?o/esQ/e  Pfrce  of  Co//forr?/c7  699o's 

(Crop  feors  A0S0-  /SSC*  /9/Z  &  /R?2-£-z) 

t 

V 

i' 

•  /a 

•se 

/s 

/2 

// 

/O 
5 

a 

7 
6 

s 

4 

•a 

09            *co 

- 

^^^ 

- 

P   .2. 

2 

-* *2S_ 

- 

/O 

•  OS 

/>' 

1 
1 

^             »24     ' 

1 

1 
1 
1 

1 
1 
1 
1 

1 

1 
■          ,15* 

3( 

?     /OO     //O     /20    /30     (40    /SO    /60    /70     (80    /90   200   2/0    220    230    240    2SO  260  270    2SO  290  JOO 
Wor/d    Cor7SV/77pf/0/7,    f/70LSS0/7c/s    Of  toff* 

Fig.  14. — Changes  in  world  consumption  have  accounted  for  nearly  75  per 
cent  of  the  changes  in  the  wholesale  price  of  California  prunes.  Each  black 
dot  indicates  the  relation  between  world  consumption  and  the  price  of  prunes 
(in  terms  of  dollars  having  a  purchasing  power  equivalent  to  1926  dollars)  in 
the  crop  year  indicated  by  the  number  beside  the  dot.  (For  example,  12  stands 
for  1912.)  The  line  dd'  shows  the  average  relation  between  these  two  factors 
for  twenty  years,  and,  judging  from  supply  only,  indicates  at  about  what 
wholesale  price  different-sized  world  prune  crops  could  probably  have  best 
been  moved  into  consumption  without  causing  carryovers.  For  a  more  com- 
plete discussion,  see  text,  pages  51-53.  (Data  from  table  2,  page  19,  and 
table  10,  page  50.) 


The  line  dd'  shows  how  great  the  tendency  is  for  the  price  of 
prunes  to  decline  when  annual  world  consumption  is  large  or  to  rise 
when  supplies  are  small.  It  is  a  line  of  average  relationship  based 
upon  all  the  black  dots  and  drawn  so  as  to  lie  as  closely  as  possible 
to  all  of  them  and  at  the  same  time  to  be  smooth.  If  the  data  deter- 
mining the  position  of  the  black  dots  were  absolutely  correct  and  the 
world  supply  of  prunes  moving  into  consumption  were  the  only  fac- 
tor influencing  price,  all  the  black  dots  would  fall  exactly  on  the 
curve  dd'  and  one  could  determine  at  just  what  wholesale  price  any 


Bui*  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  53 

given-sized  world  crop  of  prunes  could  be  moved  into  consumption 
without  causing  any  carryover.  The  data  by  which  the  position  of  a 
number  of  the  dots  is  determined  are,  however,  very  rough  estimates, 
particularly  as  regards  the  tonnage  of  prunes  which  have  moved  into 
consumption  in  any  given  year.48  Moreover,  it  is  impossible  to  deter- 
mine at  just  what  average  price  the  whole  supply  of  California  prunes 
in  any  given  years  was  sold,  let  alone  that  at  which  those  produced 
elsewhere  sold. 

The  average  relationship  shown  by  the  line  ddf  indicates  that 
nearly  75  per  cent  of  the  changes  in  the  annual  wholesale  price  of 
California  prunes  can  be  accounted  for  by  changes  in  world  con- 
sumption of  prunes,49  Apparently  there  are  other  factors  than  the 
supply  that  affect  the  price  which  consumers  will  pay  for  prunes. 
Demand,  that  is,  the  amount  that  will  be  bought  at  any  given  price, 
may  change  as  a  result  of  advertising  or  because  of  improved,  stan- 
dardized, and  more  attractive  quality  and  packages  or  because  of 
changes  in  the  available  supplies  and  prices  of  competing  fruits. 
Indications  are  that,  in  order  to  induce  consumers  to  eat  a  given  ton- 
nage of  prunes,  a  lower  price  will  be  necessary  when  other  fruits  are 
plentiful  and  cheap  than  when  they  are  scarce  and  high  in  price. 
No  doubt  the  reason  that  so  many  prunes  were  sold  at  a  high  price 
in  1921  was  the  general  scarcity  and  the  high  price  of  many  other 
fruits.  Low  prices  and  large  crops  of  apples  and  raisins  in  1912 
probably  help  to  account  for  the  fact  that  the  price  of  prunes  was 
lower  in  that  year  than  world  supply  alone  would  indicate  as  correct. 

Psychological  factors  may  likewise  influence  the  opinions  of  grow- 
ers and  the  trade  regarding  demand,  supply,  and  price.  In  a  number 
of  the  years  for  which  prices  are  below  the  line  dd'  in  figure  14,  as  in 
1901,  packers  and  wholesalers  were  extremely  bearish,  partly  because 
prices  had  been  too  high  the  previous  year  and  had  resulted  in  a 
declining  price,  causing  losses  to  those  in  the  trade  who  had  bought 
at  high  prices  early  in  the  season,  and  partly  because  movement  into 
consumption  was  retarded  by  high  prices,  causing  a  carryover.  On 
the  contrary,  prune  prices  for  the  1911  crop  were  unreasonably  high, 
largely  because  so  many  dealers  made  such  large  profits  on  the  1910 


48  The  data  on  purchasing  power  used  in  figure  14  are  from  col.  6  in  table 
10  and  are  described  in  the  footnote  to  that  table.  The  data  compiled  by  the 
author  on  world  commercial  production  (see  table  2,  page  19,  and  footnote  22, 
page  21)  are  rough  estimates,  particularly  for  pre-war  years,  and  hence  the 
conclusions  given  above,  which  are  based  thereon,  are  tentative  only,  subject 
to  whatever  gross  errors  may  be  resident  in  the  data. 

49  The  inverse  correlation  between  price  and  consumption  as  shown  in  figure      ,^r- - 
14  is  about  —0.85. 


54  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

crop,  which  was  very  short,  causing  prices  to  skyrocket,  Many  specu- 
lators bought  prunes  at  high  prices  in  the  fall  of  1911  holding  them 
for  the  rising  prices  which  never  matured,  and  selling  them  finally  at 
declining  prices,  The  fall  of  1912,  therefore,  found  the  trade  so 
pessimistic  that  the  price  of  the  1912  crop  of  prunes  was  abnormally 
low,  considering  world  supply. 

Value  of  Figure  14  in  Estimating  Prices. — Although  the  curve  of 
estimated  prices  (dd')  in  figure  14  should  be  useful  in  estimating  the 
approximate  wholesale  price  at  which  different-sized  world  crops  of 
prunes  can  be  sold  in  the  future,  other  factors  than  supply  must  be 
taken  into  consideration.  In  the  past  some  crops  have  apparently 
all  moved  into  consumption  during  the  current  crop  year  at  consid- 
erably lower  prices  and  some  at  considerably  higher  prices  than  the 
curve  dd'  would  indicate.  Over  25  per  cent  of  the  difference  in  the 
prices  pictured  in  figure  14  must  be  accounted  for  by  the  factors  other 
than  world  consumption,  such  as  fluctuations  in  demand  due  to 
changes  in  consumers'  purchasing  power,  or  in  the  effectiveness  of 
advertising  and  merchandising  methods,  or  in  the  supplies  of  com- 
peting fruits.  Some  of  these  facts  are  difficult  to  secure  accurately 
and  cannot  be  measured  statistically.  A  trained  judgment  that  can 
ordinarily  be  acquired  only  as  a  result  of  intimate  first-hand  acquain- 
tance with  the  business  of  marketing  prunes  is,  of  course,  essential 
in  deciding  what  is  probably  the  best  price  policy  to  pursue  under  the 
conditions  existing  at  any  particular  time. 

To  illustrate  how  a  grower  might  use  figure  14  to  determine  about 
what  price  he  should  receive  for  his  prunes  at  harvest  time  let  us  take 
the  estimate  of  1928  world  commercial  production  of  September  of 
approximately  232,000  tons.50  Locate  232  on  the  horizontal  scale  on 
the  bottom  line  and  from  this  point  run  a  dotted  vertical  line  up  until 
it  cuts  dd'  at  A.  Then  from  this  point  run  a  dotted  horizontal  line 
over  until  it  strikes  the  left-hand  vertical  price  scale  at  P'.  Other 
factors  being  normal,  this  point  indicates  that  all  of  the  estimated 
1928  world  commercial  output  of  232,000  tons  of  prunes  can  probably 
be  sold  during  the  next  twelve  months  at  an  average  New  York  whole- 
sale price  lever  of  about  7%  cents  a  pound  for  60/70  prunes  (which 
average  about  69  to  the  pound).  Other  influences  on  price,  however, 
such  as  those  mentioned  in  the  paragraph  above,  may  not  be  normal, 
and  hence  this  estimated  price  might  prove  to  be  somewhat  higher  or 
lower  than  the  average  price  at  which  California  prunes  actually  sell. 

so  Current  prune  prices  to  California  growers  and  estimated  world  com- 
mercial production  for  1928  as  used  in  this  illustration  are  taken  from  issues 
of  the  mimeographed  Dried-Prune  Eeports,  issued  by  the  Division  of  Markets 
of  the  California  Department  of  Agriculture. 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE    SUPPLY   AND    PRICE    SITUATION  55 

The  grower,  however,  is  interested  in  estimating  the  price  which 
he  himself  might  expect  if  packed  prunes  averaging  69  to  the  pound 
sell  for  about  7%  cents  a  pound  in  New  York  during  the  coming 
crop  year.  It  is  estimated  that  the  margin  or  difference  between  the 
price  at  which  the  wholesaler  sells  to  grocers  in  New  York  and  the 
price  paid  the  California  grower  by  packers  is  normally  about  3  cents 
a  pound.51  Subtracting  3  cents  from  7%  cents  gives  an  estimated 
farm  price  of  4%  cents  a  pound  to  the  California  grower  for  prunes 
69  's  in  size. 

To  estimate  the  price  of  any  other  size  from  the  estimated  farm 
price  of  4%  cents^for  69  's  the  grower  must  take  into  consideration 
the  prevailing  price  differentials  being  paid  by  packers.  To  illus- 
trate :  the  average  basis  price  which  California  growers  reported 
packers  as  paying  for  62/71  's  during  the  three  months  of  July  through 
September,  1928,  was  about  4  cents  and  for  41/51 's  was  4%  cents. 
These  basis  prices  converted  to  actual  prices  per  pound  are  4.6  cents 
for  69 's  and  6.2  cents  for  49 's.52  Apparently  49  's  brought  the  grower 
a  premium  averaging  about  1.6  cents  a  pound  over  69  's.  Adding 
1.6  cents  to  the  estimated  farm  price  of  69  's  of  4.6  cents  gives  an 
estimated  farm  price  for  49 's  based  upon  figure  14  of  6.2  cents,  or 
the  same  average  price  which  California  growers  reported  as  receiv- 
ing for  their  1928  output  of  69  prunes.  This  agreement  of  estimated 
with  actual  price  may,  in  small  part,  be  due  to  mere  chance.  The 
estimated  price  might  easily  differ  from  the  actual  farm  price  con- 
siderably in  some  years,  even  though  the  latter  were  properly  in  line 
with  the  true  market  situation.  The  factors  other  than  world  supply 
mentioned  on  page  54  as  accounting  for  about  25  per  cent  of  the 
changes  in  prices  in  some  years  might  be  far  from  average  in  some 
years,  whereas  they  appear  to  be  close  to  normal  in  1928. 

si  This  rough  estimate  is  based  upon  current  trade  information  which  indicates 
that  in  order  to  cover  his  costs  and  a  normal  profit,  the  packer  usually  plans 
on  selling  25-pound  packed  boxes  of  prunes  f.o.b.  California  shipping  points  at 
about  1%  cents  a  pound  more  than  the  price  which  he  pays  the  grower.  The  New 
York  wholesaler  probably  has  to  sell  to  the  retail  grocer  at  an  average  price  about 
iy2  cents  a  pound  higher  than  the  f.o.b.  price  paid  to  the  California  packer. 
No  doubt  these  margins  vary  somewhat  with  changing  market  conditions. 
A  comparison  of  packers'  quotations  f.o.b.  California  and  New  York  whole- 
sale quotations  on  60/70 's  during  the  crop  years  1925  and  1926  shows  the 
average  and  most  frequent  monthly  difference  to  be  1%   cents  a  pound. 

In  comparing  the  price  received  by  the  grower  with  the  price  at  which 
the  packer  sells  packed  prunes  to  the  trade  one  must  also  consider  that  the 
packer's  margin  is  increased  by  the  gain  in  weight  resulting  from  the  moisture 
absorbed  in  processing,  which  varies  somewhat  with  different  sizes  of  prunes, 
but  probably  averages  between  3.5  and  4.0  per  cent  according  to  different 
estimates. 

52  See  page  57  for  the  method  of  estimating  the  actual  price  per  pound  from 
the  basis  price. 


56  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Supply-Price  Relation  Less  Consistent  Than  Before  the  War. — 
The  relationship  between  world  production  and  the  price  of  prunes 
has  not  been  so  consistent  since  the  war  as  before.  For  several  years 
after  the  war  it  was  unusually  difficult  to  judge  at  what  prices 
different-sized  prune  crops  would  move  into  consumption  and  the 
trade  was  not  well  informed  regarding  Jugoslavian  supplies.  Sudden 
changes  took  place  in  the  general  price  level  and  very  abnormal 
economic  conditions  existed  in  our  chief  foreign  markets  which 
seriously  affected  the  purchasing  power  of  European  countries,  par- 
ticularly of  those  in  Germany,  ordinarily  the  largest  importer  of  our 
prunes.  The  greatly  increased  output  of  fruits — fresh,  canned,  and 
dried — since  the  war  has  also  added  to  the  difficulty  of  properly 
pricing  and  marketing  prunes. 

It  is  unfortunate  for  the  industry  that  prices  have  not  been  better 
adjusted  to  world  conditions  of  supply  and  demand.  Since  the  war 
the  opening  price  of  prunes  in  a  number  of  years  was  too  high  to 
move  the  large  world  supply,  and  consequently  prices  declined,  caus- 
ing those  in  the  trade  who  stocked  up  with  prunes  to  lose  money  and 
discouraging  them  from  handling  the  product  and  pushing  it  into  con- 
sumption and  also  causing  carryovers  which  tended  to  depress  prices 
the  following  year.  The  net  result  has  been  that  growers  and  most  of 
the  factors  in  the  trade  have  made  less  money  than  they  would  have 
made  had  prices  been  such  as  to  insure  the  trade  reasonably  profitable 
margins  and  to  create  a  confident  tone  to  the  market,  which  would 
stimulate  the  pushing  of  prunes  into  consumption  at  a  time  of  heavy 
world  production  and  of  keen  competition  from  other  fruits  as  well 
as  of  low  consumer  purchasing  power  in  some  of  our  chief  foreign 
markets,  such  as  Germany. 

Partly  as  a  result  of  this  unfortunate  situation  the  buying  policy 
of  the  entire  prune-distributing  trade  has  undergone  decided  changes 
in  recent  years.  In  1926  Critchfield  found  that  a  general  hand-to- 
mouth  buying  program  prevailed.  "The  volume  of  purchases  of 
prunes  for  future  delivery  by  the  jobbing  and  wholesale  distributors 
is  much  less  than  it  was  in  earlier  periods.  There  has  been  a  notice- 
able change  in  the  number  of  speculative  jobbers.  Formerly  specula- 
tive jobbers  acted  as  a  shock-absorbing  or  reservoir  agency  and  carried 
the  growers'  crops  until  the  wholesale  and  retail  distributors  were  in 
need  of  supplies,  Only  a  few  such  firms  are  in  operation  now.  .  .  . 
Large  stocks  of  prunes  are  no  longer  purchased  and  held.  Immediate 
needs  only  are  anticipated  and  met.  Chain-store  buyers  purposely 
follow  this  policy;  the  'cash  and  carry'  wholesalers  have  adopted 


BUL.  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  57 

it ;  and  many  regular  wholesalers  stated  that  in  general  they  also  were 
forced  to  buy  only  for  their  immediate  needs. ' ' 53 

Methods    of    Quoting    Prices    to    Growers.54 — Formerly    packers 
usually  bought  prunes  from  growers  at  a  single  '  basis '  price  with  a 
uniform  differential  per  point  which  was  applied  to  prunes  of  all 
sizes.     The  old  single  or  fixed  'basis'  price  was  for  prunes  averaging 

80  to  the  pound.  For  prunes  larger  than  80  's  a  uniform  additional 
premium  of  1/20  of  a  cent  a  pound,  the  equivalent  of  a  dollar  a  ton, 
was  added  to  the  basis  price,  for  every  'point'  that  a  given  lot  of 
prunes  averaged  larger  than  80.  The  same  amount  was  subtracted 
for  every  'point'  smaller  than  80.     For  example,  prunes  averaging 

81  to  the  pound  being  one  'point'  smaller  in  size  than  80 's  would 
bring  1/20  of  a  cent  a  pound  or  $1  a  ton  less  than  the  'basis'  price. 
Prunes  averaging  35  to  the  pound,  being  45  points  larger  in  size  than 
80 's  would  bring  2%  cents  or  $45  a  ton  more  than  the  basis  price. 
This  system  of  payments  is  sometimes  called  the  'five-points  basis' 
system  because  the  uniform  differential  of  one-twentieth  (1/20)  cents 
a  pound  as  a  decimal  is  five-hundredths  (0.05)  of  a  cent  or  0.0005 
of  a  dollar  a  pound.  Special  premiums  for  certain  of  the  larger  sizes 
that  were  particularly  scarce  in  any  one  year  were  sometimes  paid 
growers  in  addition  to  the  price  as  calculated  by  the  method  described 
above.  For  example,  30/40  prunes  frequently  commanded  a  pre- 
mium of  %  to  %  of  a  cent  a  pound  above  a  price  calculated  by  the 
uniform  'five-point  basis'  system. 

Partly  as  a  result  of  changing  conditions  of  the  supply  of,  and  the 
demand  for,  different  sizes  of  prunes  (see  pages  39-41)  some  sizes  so 
frequently  commanded  an  extra  premium  over  the  uniform  differential 
of  one  dollar  per  ton  per  point  in  size  that  a  'varying-basis  price' 
system  has  finally  been  rather  generally  adopted  in  the  state.  The 
essential  difference  between  this  system  and  the  old  system  is  that  a 
different  basis  price  is  quoted  for  different  sizes  of  prunes  instead  of 
a  single  basis  price  for  all  sizes.  Under  this  system  a  difference  of  ten 
points  in  size,  such  as  that  between  70  's  and  60  's,  does  not  necessarily 
result  in  the  same  price  differential  as  the  ten-point  difference  between 
the  size  of  60  's  and  of  50  's,  as  was  the  case  under  the  old  system  unless 
special  premiums  in  addition  to  the  regular  dollar  per  size-point  were 
definitely  agreed  upon. 

53  Critchfield,  B.  H.  Demand,  marketing,  and  production  of  Oregon  and 
Washington  prunes.     II.  S.  Dept.  Agr.  Dept.  Circ.  416:28.     1927. 

54  Discussion  and  illustrations  of  packers'  methods  of  quoting  prices  to 
growers  are  given  in:  California  State-Federal  Joint  Marketing  Service.  Dried- 
Prune  Eeport  2:1-3.  California  Dept.  Agriculture  (mimeo.).  August  15,  1928. 
See  also  Kieffer,  D.  L,  Up  and  down  from  base  80.  Pacific  Eural  Press 
126:620-621.     1928. 


58  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

Given  the  basis  price  for  any  particular  size  of  prunes,  however, 
the  method  of  calculating"  the  actual  price  per  pound  under  the  newer 
system  is  the  same  as  under  the  old.  One-twentieth  of  a  cent  per 
pound  or  one  dollar  a  ton  is  added  or  subtracted  from  the  basis  price 
for  every  point  that  the  given  size  of  prunes  differs  from  80  's.  Under 
the  varying-basis  price  system  if  the  basis  price  for  41/51  's  is  5  cents, 
then  a  lot  of  prunes  averaging'  45  per  pound,  or  35  size-points  larger 
than  80  's,  would  bring  6%  cents  per  pound — [5  cents  +  (35  X  0.05 
cents)],  or  $135  per  ton— [($0.05  X  2,000)  +  (35  X  $1.00)]. 

On  very  large  sizes  and  very  small  sizes  a  'flat,'  actual  (not  a 
'basis')  price  is  frequently  quoted:  so  many  cents  per  pound  for  any 
of  the  sizes  within  the  particular  size  class  quoted.  For  example,  in 
the  fall  of  1928  prunes  24  or  less  to  the  pound  were  quoted  to  some 
growers  at  a  'flat'  price  of  IOV2  cents  a  pound,  25/30 's  at  10  cents, 
and  31/33 's  at  8%  cents.  Sizes  34/101 's  were  quoted  at  varying  basis 
prices  but  102/121  's  were  quoted  at  a  flat  price  of  2  cents  and  122  or 
smaller  at  1%  cents  a  pound. 

To  insure  himself  of  fair  treatment  by  buyers  and  better  to  under- 
stand the  relation  of  prices  and  sizes  of  prunes,  every  grower  should 
thoroughly  master  the  intricacies  of  the  cumbersome  system  by  which 
dried  prunes  are  bought  and  sold. 

Influence  of  Size  on  Price. — The  price  of  any  size  of  prunes  is 
affected  not  only  by  changes  in  the  total  supply  of  prunes  available 
at  any  particular  time,  but  also  by  changes  in  the  relative  plentiful- 
ness  or  scarcity  of  that  particular  size.  In  a  general  way  the  available 
evidence  indicates  that  a  substantial  increase  from  one  year  to  the 
next  in  the  proportion  of  prunes  of  any  given  size  usually  results  in 
a  noticeable  decrease  in  the  relative  premium  paid  for  that  size.  Con- 
versely, a  marked  decrease  from  one  year  to  the  next  in  the  proportion 
of  a  particular  size  generally  results  in  an  increase  in  the  relative 
premium  paid  for  that  size.  In  recent  years  this  tendency  for  the 
relative  price  differential  for  a  given  size  to  fluctuate  in  the  opposite 
direction  from  the  proportion  of  the  total  supply  which  the  size  con- 
stitutes is  most  evident  in  the  case  of  the  larger  sizes  of  prunes. 

Table  11  indicates  that  the  relative  premium  paid  for  large  prunes 
has  tended  to  increase  during  the  last  decade  or  more,  whereas  the 
relative  differential  against  small  prunes  has  been  increasing.  In 
view  of  the  fact  that  the  proportion  of  large-sized  prunes  has  shown 
a  noticeable  increase  during  this  same  period55  it  would  seem  that  the 


55  See  discussion  on  page  39. 


Buu  462] 


PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION 


59 


demand  for  large  prunes  has  been  increasing  at  the  expense  of  that  for 
the  small-sized  prunes.  Otherwise  one  would  expect  to  find  the  price 
of  large  prunes  declining  relative  to  that  of  small  prunes.  This 
tendency  serves  to  emphasize  the  importance  of  reducing  the  output 
of  small  and  inferior  prunes.56 

TABLE  11 

Farm  Price  of  Prunes  by  Sizes,  Average  1917-1920  and  1922-1925 


1917-1920 

1922- 

1925 

Size 

Cents 

Per  cent  of 

Cents 

Per  cent  of 

per  lb. 

average 

rjer  lb.  » 

average 

20/30 

16  5 

185 

If  A 

224 

30/40 

13.0 

146 

9.-1 

164 

40/50 

11.5 

129 

6.9 

125 

50/60 

9.9 

110 

6.1 

110 

60/70 

9.0 

101 

5.4 

97 

70/80 

7.8 

87 

5.1 

93 

80/90 

6.8 

76 

4.3 

77 

90/100 

6.1 

68 

2.9 

52 

100/120 

4.7 

53 

1.7 

32 

120/up 

4  0 

45 

14 

26 

Average . 

8.9 

100 

5.5 

100 

Source  of  data: 

Returns  to  members  of  the  California  Prune  and  Apricot  Growers  Associa- 
tion for  Sunsweet  prunes.     Compiled  from  the  Sunsweet  Standard. 


ss  Some  illustrations  of  how  the  size  of  prunes  affects  growers '  incomes 
and  profits  are  contained  in  the  following  article:  Anonymous.  Profits  from 
prunes.  Sunsweet  Standard  9(io>:6-8.  March,  1926.  The  following  quotations 
from  the  summary  of  a  mimeographed  report  of  the  Farm  Adviser  of  Napa 
County  giving  detailed  average  costs  of  producing  prunes  on  about  twenty 
prune  orchards  in  that  county  strongly  emphasize  the  necessity  of  producing 
a  large  tonnage  of  large-sized  fruit  in  order  to  make  profits.     "Prunes  smaller 

than  100  to  the  pound  seldom,  if  ever,  pay  the  cost  of  production The 

records  of  one  of  the  growers  in  this  study  prove  that  irrigation,  fertilization, 
and  intelligent  cultivation  will  take  a  non-profitable  prune  orchard  and  make 
it  pay  by  increasing  the  size  of  fruit  and  improving  the  quality. ' '  (Anonymous. 
Napa  reckons  prune  costs.  Pac.  Rur.  Press  114:656.  1927.)  The  conclusions 
reached  upon  the  basis  of  the  limited  data  presented  in  the  two  articles 
referred  to  above  are  that  the  successful  grower  is  successful  because  he  raises 
large  prunes  of  good  quality  and  because  he  secures  a  large  acre-yield  at  an 
economical  expenditure  of  management,  labor,  and  capital.  Some  facts  on 
cost  of  production  that  throw  some  additional  light  on  the  relative  profitable- 
ness of  different  sizes  of  prunes  may  be  found  in:  Newman,  Ralph.  Tehama 
prune  men  confer.     Pac.  Rur.  Press  110:674.     1925. 


60  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT    STATION 


PROBLEMS    OF    ADJUSTMENTS? 

Needed  Remedial  Measures. — If  the  forecasted  production  of 
prunes  actually  matures  and  reaches  the  market  during  the  next  few 
years,  prices  will  have  to  be  low  to  induce  consumers  to  use  all  the 
available  supply,  or  else  growers,  selling  agencies,  and  others  finan- 
cially interested  in  the  industry  will  have  to  unite  in  a  determined 
and  constructive  remedial  program.  Such  a  program  would  involve 
measures  (1)  to  reduce  the  acreage  and  commercial  production  of 
prunes,  (2)  to  lower  production  costs,  (3)  to  improve  size  and  quality, 
(4)  to  eliminate  small  and  inferior  prunes  from  consumption  as  table 
fruit,  (5)  to  reduce  costs  of  marketing,  (6)  to  improve  and  widen 
distribution,  and  (7)  to  stimulate  foreign  and  domestic  demand. 

The  probability  that  market  improvements  alone  will  not  prevent 
prune  prices  from  averaging  unprofitably  low  to  an  abnormally  large 
proportion  of  California  growers  during  the  next  few  years  suggests 
that  the  lower  grades  and  smaller  sizes  of  prunes  should  be  eliminated 
from  consumption  for  table  purposes  in  so  far  as  feasible.  Moreover, 
more  efficient  production  methods  should  be  used  wherever  possible  in 
order  to  cut  costs  per  ton  and,  at  the  same  time,  means  should  be  taken 
to  improve  the  size  and  quality  of  the  prunes  produced — a  combina- 
tion admittedly  very  difficult  of  attainment. 

Growers  in  localities  not  well  adapted  to  producing  high  yields  or 
a  quality  and  size  of  sufficient  superiority  to  offset  low  yields  should 
carefully  consider  possible  alternative  or  supplementary  enterprises 
whereby  they  may  increase  their  income  by  drawing  a  larger  propor- 
tion of  it  from  sources  likely  to  be  more  remunerative  than  prunes. 
Apparently  growers  who  are  largely  dependent  upon  prunes  for  their 
income  and  who  cannot  make  a  living  from  prune  production  at  prices 
averaging  as  low  as  those  of  recent  years,  may  be  forced  to  discontinue 
farming  for  themselves  unless  they  can  quickly  substitute  crops 
capable  of  bringing  them  a  living,  or  else  supplement  their  farm 
income  by  wages  earned  elsewhere.  The  reduction  in  production  and 
the  rise  in  prices  resulting  from  readjustments  by  individual  growers 
along  these  lines  would,  of  course,  redound  to  the  benefit  of  the 
industry  as  a  whole. 


57  Some  of  the  chief  economic  difficulties  with  which  California  farmers 
are  now  confronted,  and  possible  remedies  and  adjustments  are  discussed 
briefly  in  a  circular  by  the  staff  of  the  College  of  Agriculture:  The  agricul- 
tural situation  in  California.     California  Agr.  Ext.  Ser.  Cir.  18:20-30.     1928. 


Bui*  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  61 

Limited  Influence  of  Market  Improvements  on  Prices. — Even 
though  extraordinary  improvements  were  to  be  made  in  marketing 
prunes  during  the  next  few  years  it  is  improbable  that  the  net  result 
would  be  sufficient  to  entirely  overcome  the  depressing  effect  of  heavy 
production  upon  prices.  Marketing  improvements  would  be  worth 
working  for,  however,  for  they  should  result  in  the  grower  receiving 
higher  prices  than  he  would  be  able  to  get  without  them.  The  test 
of  the  value  of  efforts  to  improve  distribution  will  be  whether  prices 
are  better  than  they  would  have  been  had  no  such  changes  been 
made,  and  not  on  whether  prices  are  actually  higher  during  the  period 
in  which  the  improvements  are  in  effect. 

In  judging  the  success  of  the  agencies  which  market  their  prunes 
during  the  next  few  years,  growers  should  always  use  this  measure, 
otherwise  they  are  destined  to  feel  that  the  marketing  of  their  crop  is 
unsatisfactory.  Under  competitive  conditions  the  best  marketing 
organization  and  salesmen  in  the  world  cannot  force  consumers  to  pay 
growers  a  profitable  price  for  their  crops  when  too  much  is  produced. 
Glutted  markets  and  ruinously  low  prices,  due  to  increasing  output 
much  faster  than  demand,  emphasize  a  fact  often  forgotten  at  planting 
time :  namely,  that  many  problems  of  marketing  cannot  be  separated 
from  problems  of  production.58 

In  so  far  as  possible,  plans  for  expanding  the  market  for  a  farm 
product  should  be  made  at  the  same  time  any  extended  movement  to 
increase  the  output  originates,  and  expansion  of  markets  should  be 
made  to  keep  pace  with  increasing  production.  In  order  to  success- 
fully establish  a  reasonably  profitable  and  stable  equilibrium  between 
production  and  marketing  or  the  supply  of,  and  the  demand  for  a 
farm  product,  growers  must  secure  the  intelligent  and  sympathetic 
cooperation  of  all  agencies  that  are  to  any  considerable  extent 
financially  dependent  upon  the  commodity  either  directly  or  indirectly, 
such  as  financial,  transportation,  and  marketing  organizations.  The 
peculiar  nature  of  agricultural  industries59  unfortunately  makes  effec- 
tive action  upon  the  part  of  growers  alone  extremely  difficult.     There- 


sa B.  H.  Hibbard  believes  that  the  major  part  of  the  ultimate  solution 
of  the  marketing  problem  consists  in  adapting  production  to  demand.  "No 
farmer  or  group  of  farmers, "  he  states,  "can  hope  to  make  over  the  demand 
for  agricultural  products,  though  in  particular  instances  it  may  be  influenced. 
The  main  task  of  the  farmer  in  conquering  the  marketing  difficulties  is  to  get 
market  information  and  act  on  the  basis  it  affords. ,;  (Hibbard,  B.  H.  Market- 
ing agricultural  products,    p.  377.    Appleton  &  Co.,  New  York.     1921.) 

59  Some  of  the  more  important  characteristics  of  farming  peculiar  to  agri- 
culture as  an  industry  and  their  economic  significance  is  briefly  discussed  in: 
Ely,  R.  T.,  and  E.  W.  Morehouse.  Elements  of  land  economics,  p.  98-109. 
Macmillan  Co.,  New  York.     1924. 


62  UNIVERSITY   OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

fore,  for  the  good  of  all,  other  agencies  should  lend  foresighted  and 
constructive  aid  that  will  help  to  prevent  the  difficulties  that  demand 
so  much  remedial  assistance. 

Many  agencies  other  than  growers  and  many  influences  other  than 
agricultural  must  share  the  responsibility  for  the  overplanting  of  fruit 
which  occurred  in  California  after  the  war.  Many  of  the  financial 
difficulties  which  growers  face  are  the  result  of  conditions  created 
directly  or  indirectly  by  the  war.  The  sudden  and  great  changes  in  the 
general  level  of  prices  during  the  last  fifteen  years  (see  pages  47^9) 
have  been  at  the  bottom  of  the  financial  difficulties  of  many  growers. 
The  high  general  price  level  during  and  right  after  the  war  made 
many  believe  that  their  net  incomes  were  much  larger  than  they 
actually  were.  When  the  bottom  dropped  out  of  the  prices  for  agri- 
cultural staples,  such  as  grain,  right  after  the  war,  the  prices  of  most 
fruits  remained  at  relatively  high  and  more  profitable  levels,  encourag- 
ing a  shift  toward  fruit  planting  in  many  sections  of  California. 
While  fruit  prices  were  high,  much  land  was  bought  and  sold  for 
fruit  growing  at  a  very  high  valuation  based  on  the  assumption  that 
high  prices  would  rule  when  the  newly  planted  orchards  finally  came 
into  bearing.60 

When  great  declines  in  fruit  prices  finally  came,  as  a  result  of  the 
great  increase  in  production  coming  from  young  bearing  orchards 
planted  in  boom  times,  attempts  were  made  by  a  number  of  agencies 
to  hold  the  price  of  certain  fruits  too  high.  This  resulted  in  moving 
them  into  the  trade  at  declining  prices,  thus  demoralizing  the  market 
by  making  their  distribution  unprofitable  to  the  trade  and  by  causing 
serious  carryovers  (see  page  56). 

Danger  of  Betting  Prices  Too  High. — Great  care  should  be  exer- 
cised during  the  next  few  years  to  sell  prunes  at  a  price  low  enough 
to  move  large  crops  into  consumption  readily  before  the  following 
year's  crop  is  ready  for  market.  The  experience  with  carryovers 
which  the  raisin  and  the  canning-peach  industries  are  having  and  that 
through  which  the  prune  industry  has  passed  in  some  years  since  the 
war  should  convince  prune  growers  that  it  is  suicidal  to  hold  prices 
high  enough  to  cause  substantial  carryovers  from  one  crop  year  to  the 
next  during  a  period  in  which  average  production  is  very  large.     In 


so  After  many  years  of  observation  of  fruit  growing  in  all  sections  of  the 
United  States,  Chandler  has  concluded  that  "only  intelligent  and  cautious 
study  of  the  situation  by  buyers  can  reduce  the  number  of  serious  losses  by 
people  going  into  the  orchard  business. "  (Chandler,  W.  H.  North  American 
orchards,  p.  501.  Lea  and  Febiger,  Philadelphia,  1928.)  In  this  concluding 
discussion  in  Chapter  24  he  summarizes  the  problems  which  prospective 
orchardists  should  consider  in  going  into  the  business  of  fruit  growing. 


BUL.462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  63 

recent  years  fluctuations  in  the  size  of  California  prune  crops  have 
not  been  very  large,  and  California  production  has  largely  dominated 
fluctuations  in  world  output.  The  possibility  of  a  failure  of  the  Cali- 
fornia prune  crop  serious  enough  to  justify  taking  the  chance  of  hold- 
ing any  considerable  quantity  of  prunes  over  from  one  year  to  the 
next  is  rather  remote.  As  a  general  rule  the  price  of  prunes  should  be 
kept  at  such  a  level  that  substantially  all  of  each  crop  moves  into  con- 
sumption during  its  own  crop  year  or  is  completely  removed  in  some 
way  or  other  from  being  carried  over  to  depress  prices  in  the  following 
crop  year. 

Unless  growers  and  selling  agencies  unite  in  a  determined,  con- 
structive program  which  results  in  lowering  of  market  costs  and  in 
increasing  the  demand  for  prunes,  there  is  little  likelihood  of  getting 
higher  prices  for  large  crops  of  prunes  than  those  that  have  prevailed 
in  recent  years  for  world  crops  of  similar  size.  If  prunes  are  not 
intelligently  and  energetically  pushed  into  consumption  and  the 
market  greatly  broadened,  growers,  as  a  group,  may  expect  a  con- 
tinuation of  low  prices  on  an  average,  unless  production  is  curtailed. 
Any  attempt  to  keep  part  of  the  prune  crop  from  being  harvested  or 
marketed,  however,  will  encounter  the  same  kind  of  difficulties  which 
the  canning-peach  and  the  raisin  growers  of  the  state  have  experienced. 
History  records  few,  if  any,  economically  successful  attempts  to  dis- 
pose of  large  surpluses  of  semi-perishable  farm  products  like  dried 
fruits,  whose  cyclical  period  of  over-production  usually  lasts  several 
years  because  of  the  peculiar  difficulty  of  quickly  reducing  acreage. 


APPENDIX  OF  TABLES 


66 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


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PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION 


67 


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68 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE  14 

United  States  Exports  of  Prunes  by  Countries,  1897-1927 


Year 
begin- 
ning 
July  1 

Total 

Ger- 
many 

British 
Isles 

Canada 

France 

Nether- 
lands 

Bel- 
gium 

Scandi- 
naviat 

New- 
Zealand 

Mexico 

All 
others 

Millions  of  pounds,  i.e., 

000,000  omitted 

1897 

15.9 

5.7 

2.2 

1.2 

3.8 

1.6 

1.2 

0.1 

* 

* 

0.1 

1898 

5.6 
25.9 

11 

8.5 

0.8 
4.7 

1.1 
1.6 

1.5 
3.6 

0.2 

4.7 

0  5 
1.8 

I 

I 

0.4 

1899 

0.6 

0  4 

1900 

10.0 

3.1 

11 

1.7 

2.4 

0.5 

0.4 

* 

* 

0.8 

1901 

23.4 

7.5 

3.6 

3.4 

1.0 

4  2 

2.2 

0.7 

* 

* 

0.8 

1902 

66.4 

18.7 

15  0 

5.0 

16.1 

3.9 

4.8 

1.7 

* 

* 

1.2 

1903 

73  1 

20.4 

9.1 

4.3 

22.8 

8.1 

5.2 

1.7 

* 

0.2 

1.3 

1904 

55  0 

20.9 

11.1 

5.2 

0  4 

9.8 

15 

3.7 

* 

0.6 

1.8 

1905 

24.9 

6.2 

6.4 

5.6 

0.2 

2.3 

1.5 

0.9 

* 

0.1 

1.7 

1906 

44.4 

6.9 

11.9 

10.4 

0.7 

6.6 

2.9 

2.1 

0  6 

0.2 

2.1 

1907 

28.1 

8.6 

3.8 

6.7 

0  1 

2.8 

1.9 

1.8 

0.7 

0.2 

1.5 

1908 

22.6 
89.0 

6.9 
36.6 

1.8 
12  4 

8.3 
10.6 

1.9 
8.5 

0.8 
7.3 

0.8 

4.7 

0.6 
1.0 

0.2 
0  3 

1.3 

1909 

5.3 

2  3 

1910 

51  0 

12.6 

5.6 

8  8 

14 .2 

2  4 

3.0 

16 

0.8 

0.2 

1.8 

1911 

74.3 

31.4 

6.6 

13.5 

6.2 

2.3 

6.8 

3.1 

1.0 

0.2 

3.2 

1912 

118.0 

49.1 

8.5 

11.0 

12.0 

16.6 

6  2 

8.4 

0.8 

0.4 

5.0 

1913 

69.8 

17.4 

11  2 

12.8 

13.5 

6.4 

1.7 

2.8 

0.7 

0.1 

3.2 

1914 

43.5 
57.4 

0.0 
0  0 

10  4 
15  0 

9.3 
11  9 

1.1 

4.9 

0.6 
2.5 

18.3 
17.9 

0.9 

1.0 

2.9 

1915 

0.1 

4  1 

1916 

59.6 
32.9 
59.1 

0.0 
0.0 
0.0 

10.8 
4.8 
18  8 

11.1 

18.0 

7.9 

23.9 
2  5 
8.9 

0.3 

7.5 
0  2 
0.6f 

0.7 

0  6 

4.7 

1917 

7.4 

1918 

0.2 

2.9 

1919J 
1920J 

114  1 

o.o 

35  6 

16.8 

18.1 

2.2 

2  1 

24.4 

14.9 

57.5 

16.7 

15  5 

11.3 

1.7 

2  5 

1.6 

4  6 

0.4 

0.9 

2.3 

1921J 

109.4 

16.7 

29.6 

14 .3 

25  1 

4.4 

3.9 

10.2 

1.2 

0.7 

3.3 

1922 

79.2 

0.3 

18.9 

14  0 

26.6 

1.8 

2.5 

7.6 

1.5 

1.0 

5.0 

1923 

136.4 

51.1 

30  2 

15  2 

3.7 

12  0 

3  5 

11.2 

1.4 

0.8 

7.3 

1924 

171.8 

55  0 

31.6 

14.8 

20.2 

15.6 

4.8 

15.6 

1.6 

0.9 

11.7 

1925 

151  4 

18.9 

37.1 

17.7 

39.1 

8.9 

4.7 

9.2 

1.8 

1.2 

12.8 

1926 

175  5 

38.6 

40.2 

20.5 

27.2 

10.2 

6  0 

14  6 

1.9 

0.9 

15.4 

1927 

260.6 

79.7 

45.6 

23.3 

27.4 

23.1 

9.5 

17.0 

1.3 

1.5 

32.2 

Aver- 

ages 

1899-03 

39.8 

11.6 

6.7 

3.2 

8.7 

4.6 

2.9 

1.0 

* 

* 

0.9 

1904-08 

35.0 

9.9 

7  0 

7.2 

0  3 

4.6 

1.7 

1.9 

0.4 

0.3 

1.7 

1909-13 

80.4 

28.4 

8.9 

13.3 

10  2 

7.2 

5.0 

4.1 

0.9 

0.2 

3.1 

1923-27 

179.1 

48.7 

36.9 

18.3 

23.5 

13.9 

5.7 

13.5 

1.6 

11 

15.9 

Percent 

age  of  U 

nited  St£ 

ites  total 

exports 

1899-03 

100 

29 

17 

8 

22 

12     . 

7 

3 

* 

* 

2 

1903-03 

100 

28 

20 

21 

1 

13 

5 

5 

1 

1 

5 

1909-13 

100 

35 

11 

16 

13 

9 

6 

5 

1 

- 

4 

1923-27 

100 

27 

21 

10 

13 

8 

3 

8 

1 

1 

9 

( )  A  dash  indicates  that  quantity  was  so  small  that  the  Department  of  Commerce  did  not 

enumerate  it  separately  but  included  it  in  export  to  "all  other  countries." 

(Footnote  continued  on  next  page) 


BUK  462]  PRUNE   SUPPLY   AND   PRICE   SITUATION  69 

*  An  asterisk  indicates  that  the  quantity  exported  was  not  reported  for  the  individual  country  and 
either  amounted  to  nothing  or  was  inconsequential. 

f  Scandanavia,  as  given,  includes  Noway,  Sweden,  and  Denmark.  Exports  to  Sweden  were  so  small 
in  1918  that  they  were  not  given  separately.    Those  to  Norway  and  Denmark  were  607,871  pounds. 

t  Right  after  the  war  actual  net  exports  are  not  known.  The  export  figures  for  1919-1920  are  too 
large  as  in  several  known  instances  large  quantities  of  fruit  which  had  been  exported  from  the  United 
States,  especially  during  1920,  were  returned  and  resold  in  our  domestic  market. 

Source  of  data: 

Compiled  from  U.  S.  Dept.  Commerce,  Foreign  Commerce  and  Navigation 
of  the  United  States,  for  the  years  1897-1917;  and  from  the  June  issues  of  the 
United  States  Monthly  Summary  of  Foreign  Commerce,  for  the  years  1918 
to  date. 


STATION  PUBLICATIONS  AVAILABLE  FOR  FREE  DISTRIBUTION 


BULLETINS 


No. 
253. 

262. 

263. 
268. 
277. 
278. 
279. 
283. 
304. 

310. 
313. 

324. 

328. 
331. 
335. 

340. 

343. 
344. 

347. 

348. 
349. 

350. 

353. 


354. 
357. 


358. 

361. 

362. 
363, 

364, 

366, 

367, 

368 

369 

370 

371 

373 

374 

375 


377, 
380, 


382, 


385 
386 


387 
388 


Irrigation   and   Soil   Conditions  in  the 

Sierra   Nevada   Foothills,    California. 

Citrus   Diseases   of   Florida   and   Cuba 

Compared   with   those  of   California. 

Size  Grades  for  Ripe  Olives. 
Growing  and  Grafting  Olive  Seedlings. 

Sudan  Grass. 
Grain   Sorghums. 

Irrigation   of   Rice  in   California. 
The  Olive  Insects  of  California. 

A  Study  of  the  Effects  of  Freezes  on 
Citrus  in  California. 

Plum  Pollination. 

Pruning  Young  Deciduous  Fruit 
Trees. 

Storage  of  Perishable  Fruits  at  Freez- 
ing Temperatures. 

Prune   Growing  in   California. 

Phylloxera-resistant  Stocks. 

Cocoanut  Meal  as  a  Feed  for  Dairy 
Cows   and   Other   Livestock. 

Control  of  the  Pocket  Gopher  in 
California. 

Cheese   Pests  and   Their  Control. 

Cold  Storage  as  an  Aid  to  the  Mar- 
keting of  Plums,  a  Progress  Report. 

The  Control  of  Red  Spiders  in  Decid- 
uous Orchards. 

Pruning  Young  Olive  Trees. 

A  Study  of  Sidedraft  and  Tractor 
Hitches. 

Agriculture  in  Cut-Over  Redwood 
Lands. 

Bovine  Infectious  Abortion,  and  As- 
sociated Diseases  of  Cattle  and  New- 
born Calves. 

Results  of  Rice  Experiments  in  1922. 

A  Self-Mixing  Dusting  Machine  for 
Applying  Dry  Insecticides  and  Fun- 
gicides. 

Black  Measles,  Water  Berries,  and 
Related  Vine  Troubles. 

Preliminary  Yield  Tables  for  Second- 
Growth   Redwood. 

Dust  and  the  Tractor  Engine. 

The  Pruning  of  Citrus  Trees  in  Cali- 
fornia. 

Fungicidal  Dusts  for  the  Control  of 
Bunt. 

Turkish     Tobacco     Culture,     Curing, 
and   Marketing. 

Methods  of  Harvesting  and  Irrigation 
in  Relation  to  Moldy  Walnuts. 

Bacterial  Decomposition  of  Olives 
During  Pickling. 

Comparison  of  Woods  for  Butter 
Boxes. 

Factors  Influencing  the  Development 
of  Internal  Browning  of  the  Yellow 
Newton   Apple. 

The  Relative  Cost  of  Yarding  Small 
and  Large  Timber. 

Pear   Pollination. 

A  Survey  of  Orchard  Practices  in 
the  Citrus  Industry  of  Southern 
California. 

Results  of  Rice  Experiments  at  Cor- 
tena,  1923,  and  Progress  in  Experi- 
ments in  Water  Grass  Control  at  the 
Biggs   Rice   Field   Station,    1922-23. 

The  Cold  Storage  of  Pears. 

Growth  of  Eucalyptus  in  Galifornia 
Plantations. 

Pumping  for  Draininge  in  the  San 
Joaquin   Valley,    California. 

Pollination  of  the  Sweet  Cherry. 

Pruning  Bearing  Deciduous  Fruit 
Trees. 

Fig   Smut. 

The  Principles  and  Practice  of  Sun- 
Drying  Fruit. 


No. 

389. 
390. 

391. 

392. 
393. 
394. 


395. 

396. 

397. 

398. 
400. 
402. 
404. 
405. 
406. 
407. 


408, 
409. 


410. 

411. 
412. 

414. 

415. 
416. 

417. 

418. 

419. 

420. 

421. 
422. 

423. 

424. 

425, 
426, 

427, 

428, 

429. 
430, 
431, 

432 

433, 

434 

435 


Berseem  or  Egyptian  Clover. 

Harvesting  and  Packing  Grapes  in 
California. 

Machines  for  Coating  Seed  Wheat 
with   Copper   Carbonate   Dust. 

Fruit  Juice  Concentrates. 

Crop  Sequences  at  Davis. 

I.  Cereal  Hay  Production  in  Cali- 
fornia. II.  Feeding  Trials  with 
Cereal  Hays. 

Bark  Diseases  of  Citrus  Trees  in  Cali- 
fornia. 

The  Mat  Bean,  Phaseolus  Aconitifo- 
lius. 

Manufacture  of  Roquefort  Type  Cheese 
from  Goat's  Milk. 

Orchard   Heating  in   California. 

The  Utilization  of  Surplus  Plums. 

The  Codling  Moth  in  Walnuts. 

The  Dehydration  of  Prunes. 

Citrus   Culture   in    Central    California. 

Stationary  Spray  Plants  in  California. 

Yield,  Stand,  and  Volume  Tables  for 
White  Fir  in  the  California  Pine 
Region. 

Alternaria  Rot  of  Lemons. 

The  Digestibility  of  Certain  Fruit  By- 
products as  Determined  for  Rumi- 
nants. Part  I.  Dried  Orange  Pulp 
and  Raisin  Pulp. 

Factors  Influencing  the  Quality  of 
Fresh  Asparagus  after  it  is  Har- 
vested. 

Paradichlorobenzene  as  a  Soil  Fumi- 
gant. 

A  Study  of  the  Relative  Value  of  Cer- 
tain Root  Crops  and  Salmon  Oil  as 
Sources   of   Vitamin   A  for   Poultry. 

Planting  and  Thinning  Distances  for 
Deciduous  Fruit  Trees. 

The  Tractor  on   California  Farms. 

Culture  of  the  Oriental  Persimmon  in 
California. 

Poultry  Feeding:  Principles  and  Prac- 
tice. 

A  Study  of  Various  Rations  for  Fin- 
ishing Range  Calves    as  Baby  Beeves. 

Economic  Aspects  of  the  Cantaloupe 
Industry. 

Rice  and  Rice  By-Products  as  Feeds 
for  Fattening  Swine. 

Beef   Cattle  Feeding  Trials,    1921-24. 

Cost  of  Producing  Almonds  in  Cali- 
fornia: a  Progress  Report. 

Apricots  (Series  on  California  Crops 
and  Prices). 

The  Relation  of  Rate  of  Maturity  to 
Egg  Production. 

Apple  Growing  in  California. 

Apple  Pollination  Studies  in  Cali- 
fornia. 

The  Value  of  Orange  Pulp  for  Milk 
Production. 

The  Relation  of  Maturity  of  Cali- 
fornia Plums  to  Shipping  and 
Dessert  Quality. 

Economic  Status  of  the  Grape  Industry. 

Range  Grasses  of  California. 

Raisin  By-Products  and  Bean  Screen- 
ings as  Feeds  for  Fattening  Lambs. 

Some  Economic  Problems  Involved  il. 
the  Pooling  of  Fruit. 

Power  Requirements  of  Electrically 
Driven    Manufacturing    Equipment. 

Investigations  on  the  Use  of  Fruits  in 
Ice  Cream  and  Ices. 

The  Problem  of  Securing  Closer 
Relationship  Between  Agricultural 
Development  and  Irrigation  Con- 
struction. 


bulletins- 
No. 

436.  I.   The   Kadota   Fig.      II.   Kadota   Fig 

Products. 

437.  Economic    Aspects    of    the    Dairy    In- 

dustry. 

438.  Grafting  Affinities  with  Special  Refer- 

ence to   Plums. 

439.  The  Digestibility  of  Certain  Fruit  By- 

products as  Determined  for  Rumi- 
nants. Part  II.  Dried  Pineapple 
Pulp,  Dried  Lemon  Pulp,  and  Dried 
Olive  Pulp. 

440.  The    Feeding    Value    of    Raisins    and 

Dairy  By-Products  for  Growing  and 
Fattening  Swine. 

441.  The  Electric  Brooder. 

442.  Laboratory  Tests  of  Orchard  Heaters. 

443.  Standardization    and    Improvement   of 

California    Butter. 

444.  Series  on  California  Crops  and  Prices: 

Beans. 


(Continued) 
No. 

445.  Economic    Aspects    of    the    Apple    In- 

dustry. 

446.  The  Asparagus  Industry  in  California. 

447.  The  Method  of  Determining  the  Clean 

Weights     of     Individual    Fleeces    of 
Wool. 

448.  Farmers'      Purchase     Agreement     for 

Deep   Well   Pumps. 

449.  Economic   Aspects  of  the  Watermelon 

Industry. 

450.  Irrigation    Investigations    with    Field 

Crops  at  Davis,   and  at  Delhi,   Cali- 
fornia. 

451.  Studies   Preliminary  to   the   Establish- 

ment of  a  Series  of  Fertilizer  Trials 
in  a  Bearing  Citrus  Grove. 

452.  Economic    Aspects    of    the    Pear    In- 

dustry. 


CIRCULARS 

No.  No. 

87.   Alfalfa.  265. 

117.   The    selection    and    Cost    of    a    Small  266. 

Pumping  Plant. 

127.   House  Fumigation.  267. 
129.  The  control  of  Citrus  Insects. 

136.   Melilotus    Indica    as    a    Green-Manure  269. 

Crop  for  California.  270. 

144.   Oidium    or    Powdery    Mildew    of    the  273. 

Vine.  276. 

157.   Control  of   Pear   Scab.  277. 
164.   Small   Fruit   Culture   in    California. 

166.  The  County  Farm  Bureau.  278. 
178.  The  Packing  of  Apples  in  California. 

202.  County    Organization    for    Rural    Fire  279. 

Control. 

203.  Peat   as   a   Manure   Substitute.  281. 
209.  The  Function  of  the  Farm  Bureau. 

212.   Salvaging  Rain-Damaged   Prunes. 

215.  Feeding  Dairy   Cows  in   California.  282. 

230.  Testing  Milk,    Cream,    and   Skim  Milk 

for  Butterfat.  284. 

231.  The   Home  Vineyard.  286. 

232.  Harvesting    and    Handling    California  287. 

Cherries   for   Eastern    Shipment.  288. 

234.  Winter     Injury     to     Young     Walnut  289. 

Trees  During  1921-1922.  290. 

238.  The   Apricot  in   California.  292. 

239.  Harvesting     and     Handling     Apricots  293. 

and  Plums  for  Eastern  Shipment.  294. 

240.  Harvesting    and    Handling    California  296. 

Pears  for  Eastern  Shipment. 

241.  Harvesting    and    Handling    California  298. 

Peaches  for  Eastern   Shipment. 

243.  Marmalade     Juice     and     Jelly     Juice  300. 

from   Citrus  Fruits.  301. 

244.  Central  Wire  Bracing  for  Fruit  Trees.  302. 

245.  Vine  Pruning   Systems.  304. 

248.  Some   Common  Errors  in  Vine   Prun-  305. 

ing  and  Their  Remedies.  307. 

249.  Replacing  Missing  Vines.  308. 

250.  Measurement   of   Irrigation   Water   on  309. 

the  Farm.  310. 

252.  Support   for   Vines. 

253.  Vineyard   Plans.  311. 
255.   Leguminous    Plants    as    Organic    Fer-  312. 

tilizers   in   California   Agriculture. 

257.  The  Small-Seeded  Horse  Bean    (Vicia 

faba   var.   minor). 

258.  Thinning   Deciduous   Fruits. 

259.  Pear  By-Products. 
261.   Sewing  Grain  Sacks. 


Plant   Disease  and   Pest   Control. 

Analyzing  the  Citrus  Orchard  by 
Means  of  Simple  Tree  Records. 

The  Tendency  of  Tractors  to  Rise  in 
Front;  Causes  and  Remedies. 

An   Orchard   Brush  Burner. 

A  Farm  Septic  Tank. 

Saving  the   Gophered  Citrus  Tree. 

Home   Canning. 

Head,  Cane  and  Cordon  Pruning  of 
Vines. 

Olive  Pickling  in  Mediterranean 
Countries. 

The  Preparation  and  Refining  of 
Olive  Oil  in  Southern  Europe. 

The  Results  of  a  Survey  to  Deter- 
mine the  Cost  of  Producing  Beef  in 
California. 

Prevention  of  Insect  Attack  on  Stored 
Grain. 

The   Almond  in   California. 

Milk  Houses  for  California  Dairies. 

Potato   Production   in   California. 

Phylloxera  Resistant  Vineyards. 

Oak   Fungus   in   Orchard   Trees. 

The  Tangier  Pea. 

Alkali  Soils. 

The    Basis    of    Grape    Standardization. 

Propagation   of   Deciduous   Fruits. 

Control  of  the  California  Ground 
Squirrel. 

Possibilities  and  Limitations  of  Coop- 
erative Marketing. 

Coccidiosis  of  Chickens. 

Buckeye  Poisoning  of  the  Honey  Bee. 

The   Sugar  Beet  in  California. 

Drainage  on  the  Farm. 

Liming  the   Soil. 

American   Foulbrood  and   Its   Control. 

Cantaloupe   Production    in   California. 

Fruit  Tree  and   Orchard  Judging. 

The  Operation  of  the  Bacteriological 
Laboratory  for  Dairy  Plants. 

The  Improvement  of   Quality  in  Figs. 

Principles  Governing  the  Choice,  Op- 
eration and  Care  of  Small  Irrigation 
Pumping  Plants. 


The  publications  listed  above  may  be  had  by  addressing 

College  of  Agriculture, 

University  of  California, 

Berkeley ».  California. 

I7m-12,'28 


